Who won the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW) on 28 September 2026?
Bona Fortuna (IRE) won the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW) at SP 2.38. Ridden by Luke Morris. Trained by Michael Appleby.
20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
Cavani Winning Form Handicap Stakes
5f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 8 runners · £3,978 · Monday, 28 September 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 3rdRace report
- 1stBona Fortuna (IRE)Luke Morris·Michael Appleby11/8F·2.38SP
- 2ndNogo's Dream (GB)Oisin Murphy·Richard Hughes·beaten 0.3 lengths100/30·4.33SP
- 3rdU S S Charleston (GB)AI top pick · 59.1Lewis Edmunds·Lemos De Souza·beaten 0.2 lengths15/2·8.50SP
Race time
1m 0.26s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Bona Fortuna (IRE))
“Away eager and settled in touch - pushed along and edged in front approaching final furlong - battled on to the line - held on by a whisker for victory”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 7.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way59.1/100 rating
U S S Charleston
8.60Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Bona Fortuna
Bona Fortuna heads this Wolverhampton five-furlong contest on the all-weather narrowly ahead of a cluster of dangers, and his recent form entitles him to take up that position with some confidence. U S S Charleston and Nogo's Dream, each rated three pounds below her, represent the most pressing threats, while Comic Strip, a pound further back, cannot be discounted if the pace suits. Bona Fortuna should prove just good enough to see off her rivals, and she is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
U S S Charleston
Lewis Edmunds · Lemos De Souza · 3yo
Top-rated of 8
score 59.1 · +5.4 clear of next best (53.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong15d since last run (race-fit window)
- Trainer20% weight83small sample (n=6)Lemos De Souza: 2/6 winners last 14d (33%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Ratings50% weight49below averageOR 74
- Form20% weight40below averageLast 6: 5-2-4-3-5-6
MarketBest price 8.60 (Matchbook) · 4th in the market of 8.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Wolverhampton (AW) 5f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.24
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.91
High (7–8)
IV 0.83
Today: Bona Fortuna (draw 2) and Loleeta (draw 3) get the bias; U S S Charleston (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 624 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | J: Luke Morris · T: Michael Appleby · draw 2 5yo · G · bt | 22662 | 75 | 53.7 | 11/8F·2.38 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Oisin Murphy · T: Richard Hughes · draw 6 6yo · G · bp | 264264 | 71 | 52.1 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 3 | 3 | J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Lemos De Souza · draw 7 3yo · C · btbFT TB | 524356 | 74 | 59.1 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Harry Davies · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 1 3yo · G · bt | 37550 | 75 | 37.5 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 5 | 5 | J: Marco Ghiani · T: Stuart Williams · draw 5 3yo · F · b | 021253 | 72 | 52.2 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 6 | 8 | J: Billy Loughnane · T: Dominic Ffrench Davis · draw 4 3yo · G · bp | 250433 | 67 | 41.6 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 7 | 7 | J: Olivia Haines(7) · T: Stuart Williams · draw 3 3yo · F · bl | 682551 | 71 | 50.6 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 8 | 4 | J: Nicola Currie · T: Henry Candy · draw 8 3yo · G · b | 735161 | 73 | 47.0 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (U S S Charleston) finished 3.
What were the placings in the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Bona Fortuna (IRE) (2.38), 2. Nogo's Dream (GB) (4.33), 3. U S S Charleston (GB) (8.50).
What was the winning time for the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 0.26s.
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