19:30 Wolverhampton (AW)

Off in 30m

Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap Stakes

2m½f · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners · £3,245 · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (11 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Lilykoy

No. 11 · score 43.0 · +4.3 clear of next best · best 8/1·9.00

Best value vs consensus

Razzo Italiano

44·44.00 Matchbook · +19% vs fair (consensus 37.00)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Lilykoy advised 7/1·8.20 (Matchbook), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way43.0/100 rating

Lilykoy

9.00Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: NatureDiffers from our pick

Nature holds a clear edge over the rest of this eleven-strong field on our ratings, sitting narrowly ahead of Billy Bathgate and a few points clear of Razzo Italiano, though the extended sixteen-furlong trip on the Wolverhampton all-weather surface introduces genuine uncertainty and confidence is limited. Billy Bathgate and Razzo Italiano represent the most credible dangers, with Echo Valley also worth keeping onside at this level. On balance, Nature is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Lilykoy

John Egan · Dylan Cunha · 3yo

Top-rated of 11

score 43.0 · +4.3 clear of next best (38.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
24d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
48below average
Dylan Cunha: 5/27 winners last 14d (19%)
Form20% weight
44below average
Last 6: 5-6-8-3-4-3
Ratings50% weight
29weak
OR 44

MarketBest price 9.00 (Betfair Exchange) · 3rd in the market of 11.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
4D Day Major Winter
Prominent(2)
8Echo Valley 9Notable Charm
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(5)
1Billy Bathgate 2Individualiste 6Freewheelin 10Turton 11Lilykoy
Unknown(3)
3Nature 5Razzo Italiano 7Masterpiece

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Wolverhampton (AW) 2m½f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.89

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.11

High (9–11)

IV 1.02

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 125 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
11	LilykoyPick J: John Egan · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 6 3yo · F · bbOnly pairing	568343	8-08	44	—	—	43.0	15/2·8.29	9·9.00 Betfair Exchange · +9% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange9·9.00Smarkets8.8·8.80Matchbook8.8·8.80SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00William Hill6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Midnite11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Unibet11/2·6.50 Paddy Power5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50
4	D Day Major Winter J: Cieren Fallon · T: James Owen · draw 11 · combo 7/62 (11%) 4yo · G · bOnly pairing	68542	9-03	46	—	—	38.7	7/2·4.47	3.9·3.90 Matchbook · -13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook3.9·3.90Betfair Exchange3.9·3.90Smarkets3.85·3.85Unibet11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 William Hill11/4·3.75 SmarketsSBK11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Hollywood Bets5/2·3.5010 Bet5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 SportingIndex5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Midnite5/2·3.50 Spreadex5/2·3.50 7Bet9/4·3.25 Paddy Power9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 BetWright2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00
5	Razzo Italiano J: Jonny Peate · T: Gary Hanmer · draw 5 · combo 2/8 (25%) 9yo · G · brtvClass drop	7630	9-03	46	—	—	38.5	33/1·37.00	44·44.00 Matchbook · +19% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook44·44.00Smarkets44·44.00Betfair Exchange40·40.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook30/1·31.00Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Bet36528/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.0010 Bet25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00
9	Notable Charm J: Billy Loughnane · T: Marcus Tregoning · draw 4 3yo · G · bbClass dropOnly runner	646452	8-11	49	—	—	37.6	7/4·2.81	2.42·2.42 Matchbook · -14% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook2.42·2.42Betfair Exchange2.4·2.40Smarkets2.4·2.40Unibet11/8·2.38 Ladbrokes11/8·2.38 Coral11/8·2.38 10 Bet5/4·2.25 SportingIndex5/4·2.25 BetMGM5/4·2.25 Betfred5/4·2.25 Spreadex5/4·2.25 SmarketsSBK5/4·2.25 Quinn Bet5/4·2.25 William Hill5/4·2.25 Bet Victor6/5·2.20Hollywood Bets6/5·2.20Betfair Sportsbook6/5·2.20Paddy Power6/5·2.20 Bet3656/5·2.20Virgin Bet6/5·2.20Midnite6/5·2.20 Betano6/5·2.20 BetTom6/5·2.20 Boyle Sports6/5·2.20 Star Sports6/5·2.20 LiveScore Bet6/5·2.20 BetWright11/10·2.10 7Bet11/10·2.10 Dragon Bet11/10·2.10
10	Turton J: Luke Morris · T: Tony Carroll · draw 9 · combo 1/8 (13%) 3yo · G · bb	69569	8-10	48	—	—	35.6	66/1·65.07	120·120.00 Matchbook · +84% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook120·120.00Smarkets110·110.00SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 Betfair Exchange85·85.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.007Bet50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Bet36550/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Star Sports40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00
8	Echo Valley J: Tyler Heard · T: Tom Symonds · draw 1 3yo · F · bOnly runner	707424	8-12	50	—	—	35.2	14/1·15.31	21·21.00 Smarkets · +37% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets21·21.00Matchbook20·20.00Betfair Exchange20·20.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Unibet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.0010 Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00
1	Billy Bathgate J: Clifford Lee · T: Ewan Whillans · draw 2 10yo · G · chDOnly runner	461536	9-12	55	—	—	34.1	9/1·10.21	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · +13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Smarkets11.5·11.50SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Bet36515/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Star Sports7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Betfred13/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.50BetTom13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 BetWright6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.007Bet6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 BetMGM11/2·6.50
3	Nature J: Laura Coughlan(3) · T: Miss Celine De La Haye · draw 10 8yo · M · b	74633	9-05	48	—	—	33.9	40/1·43.38	210·210.00 Smarkets · +384% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets210·210.00Matchbook210·210.00Betfair Exchange170·170.00 SmarketsSBK100/1·101.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00BetWright33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Star Sports33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betano22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00
6	Freewheelin J: James Sullivan · T: John Norton · draw 3 8yo · G · bOnly runner	40788	9-03	41	—	—	32.6	150/1·160.77	340·340.00 Matchbook · +112% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook340·340.00Bet365150/1·151.00Virgin Bet150/1·151.00Midnite150/1·151.00 Betfred150/1·151.00 LiveScore Bet150/1·151.00 Ladbrokes150/1·151.00 Coral150/1·151.00 Unibet150/1·151.00Smarkets150·150.00Hollywood Bets125/1·126.00William Hill125/1·126.00 Paddy Power125/1·126.00 10 Bet125/1·126.00 BetTom125/1·126.00 Quinn Bet125/1·126.00 Boyle Sports125/1·126.00Betfair Sportsbook125/1·126.00Star Sports125/1·126.00 SmarketsSBK125/1·126.00 Betfair Exchange120·120.00 Bet Victor100/1·101.00 BetMGM100/1·101.00 BetWright100/1·101.00 7Bet100/1·101.00 Betano100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00
7	Masterpiece J: Paddy Bradley · T: Patrick Morris · draw 8 · combo 1/13 (8%) 6yo · G · grpFT P	306	9-03	34	—	—	30.8	22/1·24.24	25·25.00 Betfair Exchange · +3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange25·25.00Matchbook25·25.00Smarkets24·24.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00
2	Individualiste J: Rose Dawes(3) · T: Ben Lund · draw 7 8yo · G · roClass dropOnly runner	39847	9-07	50	—	—	29.9	40/1·43.38	50/1·51.00 SportingIndex · +18% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Betfair Exchange50·50.00Matchbook50·50.00Smarkets48·48.00SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 7Bet35/1·36.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.0010 Bet33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Unibet33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Midnite33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Paddy Power30/1·31.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Betano25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 28% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap Stakes?

The Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap Stakes is off at 19:30 on 29 September 2026 at Wolverhampton (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

2m½f, Class 6, Flat, 11 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Lilykoy (score 43.0, best price 9.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The market favourite is Notable Charm at a best price of 2.42. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Lilykoy.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org