Who won the 16:40 Ayr on 29 September 2026?
Big Harry (GB) won the 16:40 Ayr at SP 7.50. Ridden by Shane Gray. Trained by William Stone.
16:40 Ayr
Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap Stakes
6f · Flat · Class 4 · Heavy · 8 runners · £5,234 · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 5thRace report
- 1stBig Harry (GB)Shane Gray·William Stone13/2·7.50SP
- 2ndParisiac (IRE)Jack Nicholls·Iain Jardine·beaten .5 lengths11/4F·3.75SP
- 3rdAshen (IRE)Paul Mulrennan·Jim Goldie·beaten 1.75 lengths100/30·4.33SP
Race time
1m 13.44s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Big Harry (GB))
“Raced freely close to the pace - shaken up over 2f out - edged ahead over 1f out - pressed hard inside the final furlong - held on to win narrowly”
AI top-rated Belsito (score 53.6) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 9.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.12.76 score
Belsito
9.50Coral
segment +22.5% · Flat · Heavy · Class 4
Each-way53.6/100 rating
Belsito
11.50Smarkets
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Woven
Woven heads this field on ratings and faces testing conditions over six furlongs at Ayr, where the ground is heavy. Lord Bertie is the most significant threat and, though narrowly ahead of Parisiac and Belsito in the danger stakes, all three are rated meaningfully below Woven and will need to find significant improvement to trouble the selection. The one caveat is that heavy ground can throw up surprises, but on the balance of form this looks a clear opportunity for Woven to assert. Woven is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Belsito
Tom Eaves · Kevin Ryan · 6yo
Top-rated of 8
score 53.6 · +7.8 clear of next best (45.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Form20% weight77strongLast 6: 0-4-1-3-2-1
- Freshness10% weight70strong8d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Ratings50% weight51averageOR 77
- Trainer20% weight28weakKevin Ryan: 4/37 winners last 14d (11%)
MarketBest price 11.50 (Smarkets) · 6th in the market of 8.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 6f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.24
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.98
High (7–8)
IV 0.75
Today: Belsito (draw 2) and Ashen (draw 1) get the bias; Stirrup Cup (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 122 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Shane Gray · T: William Stone · draw 6 3yo · G · bh | 3216 | 78 | 44.4 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 4 7yo · G · bp | 220893 | 75 | 45.8 | 11/4F·3.75 SP |
| 3 | 8 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 1 4yo · G · ch | 420252 | 67 | 42.6 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 4 | 7 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 7 4yo · G · btb | 391506 | 73 | 45.2 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 5 | 1 | Belsitov1.1 J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 2 6yo · G · bp | 041321 | 77 | 53.6 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 8 5yo · G · b | 300074 | 76 | 40.2 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 7 | 2 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 3 10yo · G · chp | 472959 | 81 | 41.9 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 8 | 5 | J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 5 6yo · G · bh | 006902 | 75 | 43.8 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:40 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Belsito) finished 5.
What were the placings in the 16:40 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Big Harry (GB) (7.50), 2. Parisiac (IRE) (3.75), 3. Ashen (IRE) (4.33).
What was the winning time for the 16:40 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 13.44s.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org