Who won the 16:35 Musselburgh on 30 September 2026?
Lairy Mary (GB) won the 16:35 Musselburgh at SP 3.00. Ridden by Duran Fentiman. Trained by Tim Easterby.
16:35 Musselburgh
Global Home Of Outdoor Advertising Nursery Handicap Stakes
5f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 7 runners · £3,664 · Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 2/1F·3.00Race report
- 1stLairy Mary (GB)AI top pick · 44.5Duran Fentiman·Tim Easterby2/1F·3.00SP
- 2ndNorth Coates (GB)James Sullivan·Michael & David Easterby·beaten 1.25 lengths16/1·17.00SP
- 3rdTricky Jenny (GB)Clifford Lee·James Owen·beaten 3 lengths7/1·8.00SP
Race time
1m 0.50s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Lairy Mary (GB))
“Drifted about at the start and raced freely - always close up early - challenged for the front 2f out - struck on over 1f out - edged right late but stayed on strongly to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way41.2/100 rating
Tricky Jenny
9.80Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Calef
Calef looks the one to beat in this Musselburgh sprint, sitting top of our ratings on 64 and a useful four pounds ahead of Tricky Jenny on 60, which is a solid but not overwhelming edge in a modest Class 6 event. Tricky Jenny is the chief danger, with Lairy Mary just two pounds further back on 58 and Stay On Tab on 52 also needing to be respected over the five furlongs on good ground. The bottom three on 41, 41 and 35 look outclassed, so Calef only has to run to that level to take this. Calef is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Lairy Mary
Duran Fentiman · Tim Easterby · 2yo
Top-rated of 7
score 44.5 · +3.3 clear of next best (41.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong7d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Form20% weight48below averageLast 6: 1-6-4-6-2-4
- Trainer20% weight43below averageTim Easterby: 17/102 winners last 14d (17%)
- Ratings50% weight39below averageOR 58 — above field median
MarketBest price 3.65 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 7.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Musselburgh 5f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.25).
Low (1–3)
IV 0.89
Mid (4–5)
IV 0.85
High (6–7)
IV 1.25
Today: Stay On Tab (draw 7) and North Coates (draw 6) get the bias; Tricky Jenny (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 91 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 2 2yo · F · ch | 164624 | 58 | 44.5 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: James Sullivan · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 6 2yo · G · b | 567 | 46 | 30.7 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 3 | 1 | J: Clifford Lee · T: James Owen · draw 4 2yo · F · b | 566246 | 65 | 41.2 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam · draw 3 2yo · G · bp | 57093 | 46 | 30.5 | 9/4·3.25 SP |
| 5 | 7 | J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 1 2yo · F · ch | 6754 | 36 | 29.9 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 6 | 2 | J: Jason Hart · T: David O'Meara · draw 5 2yo · F · bv | 44U643 | 64 | 39.0 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| — | 9 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 7 2yo · C · bt | 636765 | 48 | 38.1 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:35 Musselburgh?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Lairy Mary, won the race (AI score 44.5).
What were the placings in the 16:35 Musselburgh?
Top finishers: 1. Lairy Mary (GB) (3.00), 2. North Coates (GB) (17.00), 3. Tricky Jenny (GB) (8.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:35 Musselburgh?
The winning time was 1m 0.50s.
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