Who won the 20:00 Kempton (AW) on 30 September 2026?
Time Thief (IRE) won the 20:00 Kempton (AW) at SP 13.00. Ridden by Cieren Fallon. Trained by Tom Clover.
20:00 Kempton (AW)
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1m3f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard / Slow · 10 runners · £6,281 · Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 12/1·13.00Race report
- 1stTime Thief (IRE)AI top pick · 64.1Cieren Fallon·Tom Clover12/1·13.00SP
- 2ndCape Fear (GB)Oisin Murphy·Andrew Balding·beaten 0.3 lengths5/2F·3.50SP
- 3rdTiernan (IRE)Tom Marquand·Iain Jardine·beaten 0.3 lengths7/2·4.50SP
Race time
2m 19.24s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Time Thief (IRE))
“Racing in the pack - nudged for effort over 2f out - strong finishing run from over 1f out - hit the front near the line to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 12.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way64.1/100 rating
Time Thief
11.50Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Fantasy Believer
Fantasy Believer heads our ratings on 98, a comfortable six pounds clear of Tiernan on 92, and that gap is the foundation of the case in a Class 4 over 11 furlongs at Kempton. Tiernan is the chief danger, with Rastnet on 90 and Forever Penywern on 89 also in the mix, but none of them can match the top figure on our numbers. Confidence is low, yet Fantasy Believer still looks the one to beat. Fantasy Believer is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Time Thief
Cieren Fallon · Tom Clover · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 64.1 · +3.3 clear of next best (60.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Form20% weight85very strongLast 6: 1-2
- Freshness10% weight85very strong30d since last run (fresh)
- Ratings50% weight56averageOR 84
- Trainer20% weight53averageTom Clover: 3/14 winners last 14d (21%)
MarketBest price 11.50 (Betfair Exchange) · 5th in the market of 10.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Kempton (AW) 1m3f
full course data →Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.21).
Low (1–4)
IV 0.99
Mid (5–7)
IV 1.21
High (8–10)
IV 0.83
Today: Forever Penywern (draw 6) and Fantasy Believer (draw 7) get the bias; Interstate (draw 9) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 242 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | J: Cieren Fallon · T: Tom Clover · draw 3 3yo · G · br | 12 | 84 | 64.1 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 2 | 5 | J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 4 3yo · C · chp | 213215 | 85 | 58.6 | 5/2F·3.50 SP |
| 3 | 3 | J: Tom Marquand · T: Iain Jardine · draw 1 4yo · G · b | 021526 | 85 | 52.7 | 7/2·4.50 SP |
| 4 | 10 | J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Kevin Philippart de Foy · draw 8 4yo · G · ch | 22427 | 77 | 49.8 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 5 | 6 | J: Rossa Ryan · T: Alan King · draw 2 3yo · F · b | 31388 | 84 | 60.1 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: Billy Loughnane · T: John Butler · draw 5 4yo · F · bbFT B | 223740 | 83 | 46.3 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 7 | 1 | J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 7 9yo · G · b | 05047 | 87 | 50.7 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 8 | 2 | J: Sean Levey · T: Warren Greatrex · draw 6 4yo · G · b | 21113 | 86 | 59.7 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 9 | 7 | J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon · draw 10 3yo · C · b | 56641 | 84 | 49.8 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 10 | 9 | J: William Buick · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 9 3yo · C · bb | 22213 | 83 | 60.7 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:00 Kempton (AW)?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Time Thief, won the race (AI score 64.1).
What were the placings in the 20:00 Kempton (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Time Thief (IRE) (13.00), 2. Cape Fear (GB) (3.50), 3. Tiernan (IRE) (4.50).
What was the winning time for the 20:00 Kempton (AW)?
The winning time was 2m 19.24s.
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