Who won the 15:20 Bellewstown on 1 October 2026?
One Cool Bear (IRE) won the 15:20 Bellewstown at SP 9.50. Ridden by Adam Caffrey. Trained by Adrian McGuinness.
15:20 Bellewstown
IrelandJohnny Kierans Memorial Handicap
5f · Flat · Soft To Heavy · 9 runners · €6,000 · Thursday, 1 October 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stOne Cool Bear (IRE)Adam Caffrey·Adrian McGuinness17/2·9.50SP
- 2ndBallysax Lil' Mick (IRE)Wesley Joyce·Miss Katy Brown·beaten .5 lengths5/1·6.00SP
- 3rdStar Allure (IRE)Siobhan Rutledge·Ms Claire O'Connell·beaten .75 lengths18/1·19.00SP
Race time
1m 1.30s
Race time recorded.
In-running (One Cool Bear (IRE))
“Prominent early - 3rd at halfway - urged on 2f out then edged to the front inside the final furlong - stayed on strongly to win”
AI top-rated Steel Magnolia (score 44.9) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.38 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way41.4/100 rating
Dandy Land
7.20Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: El Fontenaro
El Fontenaro heads our ratings on 66, a clear six pounds better than anything else in this ten-runner sprint, and that margin is the basis of the case on soft ground over five furlongs at Bellewstown. The main dangers are One Cool Bear and Dandy Land, both on 60, with Steel Magnolia a pound back on 59, so there is a solid group in behind who will need to improve to close the gap. Nothing further down the list looks capable of bridging the difference, and El Fontenaro gets the nod.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Steel Magnolia
W. J. Lee · W. McCreery · 4yo
Top-rated of 10
score 44.9 · +3.5 clear of next best (41.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong26d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight65strongLast 6: 3-4-7-2-1-3
- Ratings50% weight37below averageOR 55
- Trainer20% weight18weakW. McCreery: 1/15 winners last 14d (7%)
MarketBest price 3.75 (LiveScore Bet) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Bellewstown 5f
full course data →Sample too small to call at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 1.08
Mid (5–7)
IV 0.77
High (8–10)
IV 1.12
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 30 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness · draw 1 3yo · G · bbFT B | 470088 | 52 | 28.6 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 2 | 8 | J: Wesley Joyce · T: Miss Katy Brown · draw 6 8yo · G · bp | 06055 | 42 | 28.1 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Ms Claire O'Connell · draw 8 4yo · F · btp | 080055 | 37 | 22.7 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: W. J. Lee · T: W. McCreery · draw 10 4yo · F · gv | 347213 | 55 | 44.9 | 11/8F·2.38 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: Jarlath P Fahey · draw 5 4yo · F · b | 402215 | 57 | 38.1 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Sam Coen(5) · T: W. McCreery · draw 7 4yo · F · bv | 683218 | 57 | 41.4 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 7 | 4 | J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Gerard Kyne · draw 4 4yo · F · b | 08005 | 52 | 39.6 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 8 | 6 | J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: G A Kingston · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 56800 | 50 | 25.0 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
| 9 | 7 | J: Rory Cleary · T: Ms Claire O'Connell · draw 2 3yo · F · bt | 90070 | 48 | 25.4 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Shay Wallace(7) · T: Tom McGuinness · draw 9 7yo · M · bp | 000909 | 35 | 19.2 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:20 Bellewstown?
No — the AI top pick (Steel Magnolia) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 15:20 Bellewstown?
Top finishers: 1. One Cool Bear (IRE) (9.50), 2. Ballysax Lil' Mick (IRE) (6.00), 3. Star Allure (IRE) (19.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:20 Bellewstown?
The winning time was 1m 1.30s.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org