16:50 Nottingham

Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap Stakes

6f · Flat · Class 5 · Good · 15 runners · £4,449 · Thursday, 1 October 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 12th

1st
Royal Accord (GB)
Marco Ghiani·Peter Chapple-Hyam
12/1·13.00
SP
2nd
Ingleby Archie (IRE)
Jack Garritty·Adrian Nicholls·beaten 1 length
8/1·9.00
SP
3rd
Cairdeas (GB)
Kieran O'Neill·Paul Midgley·beaten .5 lengths
13/2·7.50
SP

Race time

1m 12.59s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Royal Accord (GB))

“mid-pack early - shaken up over 2f out - gained ground towards far rail over 1f out - hit front entering final 110yds and kept up the effort to win”

AI top-rated Trafalger (score 55.2) finished 12th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 22.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Havanagreattime

Havanagreattime looks the sort to take this Nottingham sprint, sitting just 2 lb behind Bright on our figures but boasting the more progressive profile and a fitness edge that should count on good ground over six furlongs. Bright is the top-rated runner and the obvious danger, though the gap is narrow and we prefer the improving type to the one with the higher number. Tiriac and Spirit of Applause, both rated 76, are also in the mix in a competitive 15-runner field, but neither has the upward momentum of our pick. Havanagreattime is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Trafalger

Benoit de la Sayette · Ben Case · 5yo

Top-rated of 15

score 55.2 · +1.5 clear of next best (53.6)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
83small sample (n=3)
Ben Case: 1/3 winners last 14d (33%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Form20% weight
43below average
Last 6: 5-8-5-5-2
Ratings50% weight
40below average
OR 60

MarketBest price 51.00 (LiveScore Bet) · 6th in the market of 15.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Nottingham 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 0.90

Mid (6–10)

IV 1.04

High (11–15)

IV 1.08

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 149 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	5	Royal Accord J: Marco Ghiani · T: Peter Chapple-Hyam · draw 11 4yo · G · b	20973	9-09	67	—	—	36.9	12/1·13.00 SP
2	4	Ingleby Archie J: Jack Garritty · T: Adrian Nicholls · draw 5 5yo · G · b	213587	9-10	68	—	—	39.5	8/1·9.00 SP
3	9	Cairdeas J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Paul Midgley · draw 10 4yo · G · ch	252040	9-07	65	—	—	35.9	13/2·7.50 SP
4	7	Tiriac J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Paul Midgley · draw 12 6yo · G · b	805656	9-08	66	—	—	36.3	14/1·15.00 SP
5	3	Spirit of Applause J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 1 6yo · G · bb	302245	9-10	68	—	—	51.3	4/1F·5.00 SP
6	10	Act of Violence J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Tony Carroll · draw 9 5yo · G · grt	841324	9-05	63	—	—	47.4	5/1·6.00 SP
7	6	Taaklam J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: Harriet Bethell · draw 7 3yo · G · bp	257619	9-08	67	—	—	49.0	28/1·29.00 SP
8	13	Thunderous Love J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman · draw 2 5yo · M · bp	692294	9-04	62	—	—	42.0	13/2·7.50 SP
9	15	Melissa Honey J: David Probert · T: Michael Herrington · draw 14 4yo · F · b	121312	9-00	58	—	—	53.6	6/1·7.00 SP
10	12	Perineighs J: Dale Swift · T: Seb Spencer · draw 6 3yo · F · b	43094	9-04	63	—	—	36.5	40/1·41.00 SP
11	8	Imelda J: Daniel Muscutt · T: David Loughnane · draw 3 3yo · F · b	23340	9-07	66	—	—	39.4	33/1·34.00 SP
12	14	Trafalger J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: Ben Case · draw 8 5yo · G · btp	58552	9-02	60	—	—	55.2	22/1·23.00 SP
13	2	Bright J: Ray Dawson · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 4 6yo · G · b	007870	9-12	70	—	—	33.4	17/2·9.50 SP
14	1	Havanagreattime J: James Sullivan · T: Ruth Carr · draw 13 5yo · G · gr	90980	9-12	70	—	—	43.2	40/1·41.00 SP
15	11	Crystal Dagger J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: Joey Ramsden · draw 15 4yo · F · bvFT V	568488	9-04	62	—	—	36.4	50/1·51.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:50 Nottingham on 1 October 2026?

Royal Accord (GB) won the 16:50 Nottingham at SP 13.00. Ridden by Marco Ghiani. Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:50 Nottingham?

No — the AI top pick (Trafalger) finished 12.

What were the placings in the 16:50 Nottingham?

Top finishers: 1. Royal Accord (GB) (13.00), 2. Ingleby Archie (IRE) (9.00), 3. Cairdeas (GB) (7.50).

What was the winning time for the 16:50 Nottingham?

The winning time was 1m 12.59s.

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