16:00 Southwell

'smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race

3m½f · Hurdle · Class 5 · Good · 8 runners · £3,248 · Thursday, 1 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (8 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Crafty Gael

No. 2 · score 67.7 · +8.6 clear of next best · best 6/4·2.52

Best value vs consensus

Cappa Lass

20·20.00 Matchbook · +13% vs fair (consensus 17.69)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.1-2.89 score

Ol Parson

8.00Smarkets

segment +6.2% · Hurdle · Good · Class 5

Each-way59.1/100 rating

Daaris

8.80Smarkets

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Crafty GaelAgrees with our pick

Crafty Gael is our selection in this Class 5 over three miles, and the progressive profile is what sets him apart in a tightly packed top end of the field. He is rated level with Captain Connor and Jurassic Pet, and only two pounds behind the top-rated Daaris, so he needs only a little further improvement to get on top. Daaris is the obvious danger on figures, with Captain Connor and Jurassic Pet also capable of making it a close finish, though our confidence is low. Crafty Gael is the pick on his upward trajectory.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Crafty Gael

Sean Bowen · Olly Murphy · 7yo

Top-rated of 8

score 67.7 · +8.6 clear of next best (59.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
21d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
67strong
Last 6: 0-8-3-2-1
Ratings50% weight
63average
OR 95 — above field median
Trainer20% weight
63average
Olly Murphy: 3/12 winners last 14d (25%)

MarketBest price 2.52 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(2)
3Ol Parson 7Athena's Dream
Hold-up / closers(2)
2Crafty Gael 6Captain Connor
Unknown(4)
1Jurassic Pet 4Daaris 5Cappa Lass 8Could Be You

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Crafty GaelPick J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy · draw 0 · combo 16/77 (21%) 7yo · G · btpGoing 1/3Only runner	08321	11-12	95	—	—	67.7	7/4·2.81	2.52·2.52 Betfair Exchange · -10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange2.52·2.52Matchbook2.52·2.52Unibet6/4·2.50 SmarketsSBK6/4·2.50Smarkets2.5·2.50LiveScore Bet6/4·2.50 William Hill6/4·2.50Virgin Bet6/4·2.50Coral11/8·2.38 BetTom11/8·2.38 Dragon Bet11/8·2.38 10 Bet11/8·2.38Hollywood Bets69/50·2.38Paddy Power11/8·2.38 Spreadex11/8·2.38Betfair Sportsbook11/8·2.38SportingIndex11/8·2.38 Ladbrokes11/8·2.38 BetWright11/8·2.38 BetMGM11/8·2.38 Quinn Bet11/8·2.38 7Bet11/8·2.38 Bet36511/8·2.38 Boyle Sports11/8·2.38 Star Sports11/8·2.38 Betfred11/8·2.38 Midnite5/4·2.25 Betano5/4·2.25 Bet Victor5/4·2.25
4	Daaris J: Lee Edwards · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost · draw 0 · combo 1/6 (17%) 7yo · G · chp	33483	11-08	91	—	—	59.1	17/2·9.43	8.8·8.80 Smarkets · -7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets8.8·8.80Betfair Exchange8.6·8.60Matchbook8.6·8.60Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 7Bet13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50BetWright13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 10 Bet6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00
3	Ol Parsonv1.1 J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Jack Jones · draw 0 5yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	24960	11-12	95	—	—	58.2	7/1·8.25	8·8.00 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook8·8.00Smarkets8·8.00Betfair Exchange7.8·7.80 BetMGM13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 10 Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50
1	Jurassic Pet J: Nico de Boinville · T: Sara Bradstock · draw 0 6yo · M · chtOnly rideOnly runner	1430	12-00	97	—	—	54.2	11/2·6.49	7.2·7.20 Smarkets · +11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets7.2·7.20Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00Matchbook7·7.00Bet3655/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50William Hill9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Bet Victor4/1·5.00
7	Athena's Dream J: Megan Bevan(7) · T: Harriet Dickin · draw 0 · combo 0/9 (0%) 4yo · F · chv	23529	10-08	81	—	—	45.4	20/1·20.05	18·18.00 Smarkets · -10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets18·18.00Matchbook18·18.00Betfair Exchange17.5·17.50 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Bet36516/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Unibet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00
6	Captain Connor J: Brendan Powell · T: Clare Ellam · draw 0 · combo 0/9 (0%) 4yo · G · bOnly runner	78273	10-08	81	—	—	42.4	20/1·20.05	22·22.00 Matchbook · +10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook22·22.00Smarkets22·22.00Betfair Exchange21·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Paddy Power18/1·19.00 7Bet16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00BetWright16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Bet36516/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00
5	Cappa Lass J: Toby Wynne · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero · draw 0 · combo 5/32 (16%) 5yo · M · bhOnly ride	678P	10-09	78	—	—	37.6	16/1·17.69	20·20.00 Matchbook · +13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook20·20.00Smarkets19.5·19.50Betfair Exchange19·19.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00William Hill16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 10 Bet14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00
8	Could Be You J: Richie McLernon · T: Neil Mulholland · draw 0 · combo 0/10 (0%) 6yo · G · bOnly pairing	0P9F8	10-07	76	—	—	36.2	17/2·9.43	9.8·9.80 Matchbook · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook9.8·9.80Betfair Exchange9.2·9.20Smarkets9·9.00Bet36515/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 Betfred7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00William Hill7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00Ladbrokes7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Midnite13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00
—	MaestrowNon-runner J: Ben Jones · T: Ben Pauling · draw 0 4yo · G · ch	07959	10-06	79	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 18% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the 'smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race?

The 'smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race is off at 16:00 on 1 October 2026 at Southwell (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:00 Southwell?

3m½f, Class 5, Hurdle, 8 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:00 Southwell?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:00 Southwell?

The AI top-rated runner is Crafty Gael (score 67.7, best price 2.52). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:00 Southwell?

The market favourite is Crafty Gael at a best price of 2.52.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org