Who won the 20:30 Dundalk (AW) on 2 October 2026?
Mallavelly (IRE) won the 20:30 Dundalk (AW) at SP 5.00. Ridden by G. F. Carroll. Trained by G. M. Lyons.
20:30 Dundalk (AW)
IrelandIrish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap
7f · Flat · Standard · 5 runners · €15,601 · Friday, 2 October 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stMallavelly (IRE)G. F. Carroll·G. M. Lyons4/1·5.00SP
- 2ndAviatrice (IRE)AI top pick · 56.5W. J. Lee·David Marnane·beaten .75 lengths10/11F·1.91SP
- 3rdTemperance (IRE)Gavin Ryan·Miss Kate McGivern·beaten .5 lengths25/1·26.00SP
Race time
1m 26.91s
Race time recorded.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.91 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Bear On The Run
Bear On The Run gets the nod at Dundalk, sharing the top rating of 90 with Aviatrice but edging the call thanks to a progressive profile that suggests there is more to come over 7f on the all-weather. Aviatrice is the obvious threat on identical figures, while Temperance, four pounds behind, and Mallavelly, six back, are the others who could take advantage if our pick fails to build on his recent improvement. With only six runners, Bear On The Run looks the one with the upward trajectory, so he is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Aviatrice
W. J. Lee · David Marnane · 4yo
Top-rated of 6
score 56.5 · +1.6 clear of next best (54.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong20d since last run (race-fit window)
- Ratings50% weight63averageOR 95 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight43below averageDavid Marnane: 2/12 winners last 14d (17%)
- Form20% weight32weakLast 6: 3-0-3-2-8-8
MarketBest price 2.25 (Bet365) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Dundalk (AW) 7f
full course data →Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.11).
Low (1–2)
IV 1.04
Mid (3–4)
IV 1.11
High (5–6)
IV 0.86
Today: Bear On The Run (draw 3) and Glitter And Glory (draw 4) get the bias; Mallavelly (draw 6) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 440 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: G. F. Carroll · T: G. M. Lyons · draw 6 5yo · M · bt | 723677 | 81 | 49.2 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: W. J. Lee · T: David Marnane · draw 2 4yo · F · b | 303288 | 95 | 56.5 | 10/11F·1.91 SP |
| 3 | 5 | J: Gavin Ryan · T: Miss Kate McGivern · draw 5 4yo · F · bb | 607787 | 77 | 35.2 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 4 | 4 | J: James Ryan · T: T G McCourt · draw 1 3yo · F · bp | 063825 | 81 | 54.9 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel James Murphy · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 5116 | 89 | 48.9 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| — | — | J: Keithen Kennedy(5) · T: Mrs J. Harrington · draw 4 3yo · F · b | 523577 | 71 | 43.4 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:30 Dundalk (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Aviatrice) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 20:30 Dundalk (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Mallavelly (IRE) (5.00), 2. Aviatrice (IRE) (1.91), 3. Temperance (IRE) (26.00).
What was the winning time for the 20:30 Dundalk (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 26.91s.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org