13:50 Ascot

Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race)

5f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 11 runners · £34,026 · Saturday, 3 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (11 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Baker Blue

No. 3 · score 64.7 · +1.1 clear of next best · best 50/1·55.00

Best value vs consensus

First Instinct

24·24.00 Betfair Exchange · +10% vs fair (consensus 21.91)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way63.6/100 rating

Fluorescence

7.60Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: RegionalDiffers from our pick

Regional heads the field on our figures at 122, a clear eight pounds better than Aramram on 114, and that gap is the heart of the case on a fast surface over the minimum trip at Ascot. Aramram is the chief danger, with First Instinct and Shagraan both on 113 and also among the key dangers, so this is far from a penalty-kick of a race in an 11-runner Class 1 sprint. Even so, Regional's superior rating gives him the most room for error, and he is the one to beat. Our selection is Regional.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Baker Blue

Pat Dobbs · Dylan Cunha · 3yo

Top-rated of 11

score 64.7 · +1.1 clear of next best (63.6)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
22d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
66strong
OR 99
Form20% weight
61average
Last 6: 0-2-6-3-4-1
Trainer20% weight
48below average
Dylan Cunha: 5/27 winners last 14d (19%)

MarketBest price 55.00 (Betfair Exchange) · 11th in the market of 11.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
3Baker Blue
Prominent(3)
6Regional 7Shagraan 9Fluorescence
Mid-division(1)
10First Instinct
Hold-up / closers(4)
1Air Force One 2Aramram 4King of Light 11Heavenly Heather
Unknown(2)
5Lifeplan 8Tuco Salamanca

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ascot 5f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.19).

Low (1–4)

IV 1.07

Mid (5–8)

IV 0.72

High (9–11)

IV 1.19

Today: King of Light (draw 9) and Lifeplan (draw 11) get the bias; Baker Blue (draw 6) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 107 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	Baker BluePick J: Pat Dobbs · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 6 3yo · G · bDOnly runner	026341	9-03	99	—	—	64.7	40/1·39.21	55·55.00 Betfair Exchange · +40% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange55·55.00Matchbook50·50.00Smarkets48·48.00Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.007Bet35/1·36.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Midnite33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00
9	Fluorescence J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell · draw 8 · combo 12/49 (24%) 4yo · F · bDGoing 1/3Only pairing	493141	9-01	104	—	—	63.6	13/2·7.50	7.6·7.60 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook7.6·7.60Smarkets7.6·7.60Betfair Exchange7.6·7.60 Unibet6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50BetWright11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.5010 Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00
8	Tuco Salamanca J: Billy Loughnane · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 3 · combo 3/17 (18%) 4yo · G · btC&DGoing 1/2Only pairing	161012	9-03	110	—	—	62.6	3/1·4.04	3.8·3.80 Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.8·3.80Smarkets3.65·3.65Matchbook3.65·3.6510 Bet5/2·3.50Hollywood Bets5/2·3.50LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 SmarketsSBK5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Paddy Power5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 Dragon Bet12/5·3.40 BetMGM12/5·3.40 BetWright12/5·3.40 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25
10	First Instinct J: Harry Davies · T: William Haggas · draw 5 · combo 8/42 (19%) 4yo · F · br	90255	8-12	104	—	—	60.5	20/1·21.91	24·24.00 Betfair Exchange · +10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange24·24.00Matchbook24·24.00Smarkets22·22.00SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 10 Bet18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00BetMGM16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Midnite14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00
7	Shagraan J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Clive Cox · draw 2 5yo · G · chpOnly pairing	30072	9-03	106	—	—	59.1	6/1·6.92	6.4·6.40 Smarkets · -7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets6.4·6.40Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20Matchbook6.2·6.20Midnite5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 BetMGM9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00
4	King of Light J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Stuart Williams · draw 9 4yo · G · chDGoing 1/5Only pairing	786051	9-03	97	—	—	57.4	33/1·33.44	34·34.00 Smarkets · +2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets34·34.00Betfair Exchange34·34.00Matchbook32·32.007Bet30/1·31.00 Paddy Power30/1·31.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Unibet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Star Sports28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00William Hill25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00
1	Air Force One J: P. J. McDonald · T: Geoff Oldroyd · draw 1 · combo 2/24 (8%) 5yo · G · chvDOnly runner	533181	9-03	102	—	—	57.1	9/1·10.38	9.6·9.60 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook9.6·9.60Smarkets9.4·9.40Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40 Betano8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00BetMGM8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Bet36515/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Paddy Power15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00
6	Regional J: Clifford Lee · T: Edward Bethell · draw 4 8yo · G · btOnly pairing	93064	9-03	107	—	—	56.4	11/1·11.53	12·12.00 Smarkets · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets12·12.00Matchbook11·11.00BetMGM10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Betfair Exchange11·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Unibet9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Coral9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 7Bet17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 William Hill8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Paddy Power8/1·9.00
5	Lifeplan J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll · draw 11 · combo 10/104 (10%) 3yo · C · bbFT BOnly rideOnly runner	1130	9-03	112	—	—	55.4	16/1·17.30	18·18.00 Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange18·18.00Matchbook17.5·17.50Smarkets17.5·17.50SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00 10 Bet14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Betfred12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00
2	Aramram J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 10 · combo 19/147 (13%) 5yo · H · b	250560	9-03	105	—	—	53.4	11/1·11.53	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · +26% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange13·13.00Smarkets13·13.00Betfred11/1·12.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 William Hill9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets17/2·9.50Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00
11	Heavenly Heather J: Barry McHugh · T: Tracy Waggott · draw 7 · combo 1/11 (9%) 5yo · M · chOnly runner	426009	8-12	102	—	—	46.8	20/1·21.91	24·24.00 Betfair Exchange · +10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange24·24.00Matchbook22·22.00Smarkets22·22.00Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00William Hill18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Paddy Power18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 10 Bet18/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Dragon Bet16/1·17.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 15% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race)?

The Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race) is off at 13:50 on 3 October 2026 at Ascot (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 13:50 Ascot?

5f, Class 1, Flat, 11 runners declared.

What is the going for the 13:50 Ascot?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 13:50 Ascot?

The AI top-rated runner is Baker Blue (score 64.7, best price 55.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 13:50 Ascot?

The market favourite is Tuco Salamanca at a best price of 3.80. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Baker Blue.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org