Who won the 12:25 Newmarket on 3 October 2026?
Hoseki (IRE) won the 12:25 Newmarket at SP 2.38. Ridden by Saffie Osborne. Trained by William Haggas.
12:25 Newmarket
British Ebf Premier Fillies' Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)
1m2f · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £30,924 · Saturday, 3 October 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 5thRace report
- 1stHoseki (IRE)Saffie Osborne·William Haggas11/8F·2.38SP
- 2ndPendella (IRE)Jack Nicholls·K. R. Burke·beaten 0.2 lengths15/8·2.88SP
- 3rdLight Of Paris (GER)Robert Havlin·John & Thady Gosden·beaten 5.5 lengths20/1·21.00SP
Race time
2m 2.06s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Hoseki (IRE))
“Sat just behind the pair in advance - challenged going into the final 2f - niggled over 1f out and kept finding in a prolonged battle - edged ahead near the line to win”
AI top-rated Supplicate (score 67.7) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 7.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way67.7/100 rating
Supplicate
9.80Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Seren Star
Seren Star heads our ratings on 99, narrowly ahead of Lady Dora Mae on 97 and Hoseki on 95, and that edge is enough to make her the pick in a tight Newmarket contest over ten furlongs on good to firm. The ground should pose no obvious problem, and she gets the nod on our figures over a field where little separates the principals. Lady Dora Mae is the chief danger, with Hoseki close behind and Pendella a little further back on 91, while Light of Paris looks outclassed on 82. This is a tricky race, but Seren Star is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Supplicate
Ray Dawson · Roger Varian · 3yo
Top-rated of 7
score 67.7 · +2.8 clear of next best (64.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong18d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight93very strongLast 6: 1-1-1-1-2
- Ratings50% weight59averageOR 89
- Trainer20% weight48below averageRoger Varian: 6/31 winners last 14d (19%)
MarketBest price 9.80 (Matchbook) · 4th in the market of 7.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newmarket 1m2f
full course data →Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.23).
Low (1–3)
IV 0.77
Mid (4–5)
IV 1.23
High (6–7)
IV 1.04
Today: Pendella (draw 5) and Seren Star (draw 4) get the bias; Hoseki (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 93 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: William Haggas · draw 2 3yo · F · b | 11141 | 91 | 64.9 | 11/8F·2.38 SP |
| 2 | 7 | J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: K. R. Burke · draw 5 3yo · F · ch | 352312 | 86 | 62.0 | 15/8·2.88 SP |
| 3 | 6 | J: Robert Havlin · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 7 3yo · F · b | 417 | 87 | 58.7 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Daniel Muscutt · T: William Haggas · draw 4 4yo · F · cht | 03378 | 89 | 54.1 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 5 | 4 | J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · draw 6 3yo · F · ch | 11112 | 89 | 67.7 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Jack Callan · T: George Boughey · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 226229 | 96 | 56.3 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Colin Keane · T: Andrew Balding · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 142 | 88 | 58.0 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 12:25 Newmarket?
No — the AI top pick (Supplicate) finished 5.
What were the placings in the 12:25 Newmarket?
Top finishers: 1. Hoseki (IRE) (2.38), 2. Pendella (IRE) (2.88), 3. Light Of Paris (GER) (21.00).
What was the winning time for the 12:25 Newmarket?
The winning time was 2m 2.06s.
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