14:45 Killarney

Off in 56mIreland

Charlie Foley's Rated Novice Hurdle

2m1f · Hurdle · Good · 7 runners · €9,000 · Sunday, 4 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (8 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Firebrand

No. 5 · score 61.7 · +0.5 clear of next best · best 5/1·6.20

Best value vs consensus

Belladaball

16.5·16.50 Matchbook · +3% vs fair (consensus 16.00)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way61.7/100 rating

Firebrand

6.20Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Firebrand

Alan O'Sullivan(5) · John J Nallen · 6yo

Top-rated of 8

score 61.7 · +0.5 clear of next best (61.2)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
27d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
77strong
OR 115
Form20% weight
67strong
Last 6: 2-2-5-4-1
Trainer20% weight
0small sample (n=5)
John J Nallen: 0/5 winners last 14d (0%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard

MarketBest price 6.20 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 8.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
5Firebrand
Prominent(2)
3Cocofred Le Roi Du Livet
Mid-division(1)
7Rosenborg
Hold-up / closers(3)
1Belladaball 2Lips Freedom 8No Mon No Fun
Unknown(1)
6Celtic Alliance

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	FirebrandPick J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: John J Nallen · draw 0 6yo · G · bbDOnly runner	22541	11-09	115	—	—	61.7	13/2·7.33	6.2·6.20 Matchbook · -15% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook6.2·6.20Betfair Exchange6·6.00Smarkets6·6.00SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50BetMGM9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Bet Victor4/1·5.00
2	Lips Freedom J: Donagh Meyler · T: Andrew Kinirons · draw 0 · combo 1/8 (13%) 6yo · G · chtC&DGoing 1/4Only runner	01102	11-12	118	—	—	61.2	13/8·2.67	6/5·2.20 Bet365 · -17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet3656/5·2.20Matchbook2.2·2.20Betfair Exchange2.2·2.20Smarkets2.18·2.18William Hill11/10·2.10 LiveScore Bet11/10·2.10Hollywood Bets11/10·2.10Coral11/10·2.10 Ladbrokes11/10·2.10Virgin Bet11/10·2.10SmarketsSBK11/10·2.10 Boyle Sportsevn·2.00 BetTomEvens·2.00 10 Betevn·2.00 Quinn BetEvens·2.00 Betanoevn·2.00 BetWrightevn·2.00 Dragon Betevn·2.00 Star Sportsevn·2.00Betfair Sportsbook1/1·2.00Paddy Power1/1·2.00 BetMGMevn·2.00 Midniteevn·2.00 Bet Victorevn·2.00 SportingIndex1/1·2.00 UnibetEvens·2.00 Spreadex1/1·2.00 Betfred10/11·1.91
3	Cocofred J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry de Bromhead · draw 0 · combo 27/138 (20%) 5yo · G · bGoing 1/2	57419	11-11	117	—	—	58.8	13/2·7.33	6.2·6.20 Matchbook · -15% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook6.2·6.20Smarkets6.2·6.20Betfair Exchange6·6.00 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.5010 Bet9/2·5.50 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00BetWright4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00
—	Le Roi Du Livet J: Brian Hayes · T: Philip Fenton · draw 0 · combo 1/7 (14%) 5yo · G · bOn last winning markOnly runner	34721	11-10	116	—	—	58.6	13/2·7.67	7·7.00 Betfair Exchange · -9% vs fair Compare 4 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7·7.00 Paddy Power5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Matchbook2.5·2.50
7	Rosenborg J: Mr R Sugrue(7) · T: P J Rothwell · draw 0 · combo 2/34 (6%) 5yo · G · bDGoing 1/3	70216	11-03	109	—	—	56.8	18/1·20.00	17.5·17.50 Matchbook · -12% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook17.5·17.50Betfair Exchange17·17.00Smarkets16.5·16.50SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 10 Bet14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Coral14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00BetWright12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00
8	No Mon No Fun J: Carl Millar(5) · T: Darren Collins · draw 0 5yo · G · bDGoing 1/3Only runner	FP418	10-13	104	—	—	51.0	40/1·38.66	36·36.00 Betfair Exchange · -7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange36·36.00Matchbook36·36.00Smarkets34·34.00William Hill28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Spreadex28/1·29.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00BetWright28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00
6	Celtic Alliance J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott · draw 0 · combo 16/108 (15%) 4yo · F · b	13	11-03	—	—	—	25.7	11/1·12.00	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -4% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Betfair Exchange11·11.00Smarkets11·11.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Paddy Power17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Coral17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 Unibet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00Midnite8/1·9.00 Bet3658/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00
1	Belladaball J: Keith Donoghue · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 0 · combo 9/105 (9%) 5yo · M · btDGoing 1/2Only pairing	104F1	12-00	—	—	—	20.8	14/1·16.00	16.5·16.50 Matchbook · +3% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook16.5·16.50Betfair Exchange16·16.00Smarkets16·16.00SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Bet3658/1·9.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 4–28 bookmakers per horse with the 33% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Charlie Foley's Rated Novice Hurdle?

The Charlie Foley's Rated Novice Hurdle is off at 14:45 on 4 October 2026 at Killarney (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:45 Killarney?

2m1f, Hurdle, 7 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:45 Killarney?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:45 Killarney?

The AI top-rated runner is Firebrand (score 61.7, best price 6.20). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:45 Killarney?

The market favourite is Lips Freedom at a best price of 2.20. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Firebrand.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org