16:30 Killarney

Ireland

Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap

1m3f · Flat · Yielding To Soft · 14 runners · €7,200 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (14 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Ocean Fire

No. 7 · score 57.7 · +4.3 clear of next best · best 12/1·13.00

Best value vs consensus

Femme Beauty

10.5·10.50 Matchbook · +3% vs fair (consensus 10.24)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 26 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way57.7/100 rating

Ocean Fire

13.00Bet365

Place portion settles at 3.40 · 1/5 odds · 4 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Femme BeautyDiffers from our pick

Femme Beauty is our selection at Killarney, and she is only three pounds shy of the top-rated Marjorie Daw on our figures, a gap her progressive profile and fitness edge can bridge on soft ground over 11 furlongs. She is a filly on the upgrade, while the leading dangers are closely bunched: Marjorie Daw is narrowly ahead of her, and Chestnut Palace and Wie Wunderbar are each two pounds better than her at 76. In a big field of 14 with the top seven separated by just five pounds, Femme Beauty's improvement can see her get the better of them, though this is a competitive contest. Femme Beauty is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Ocean Fire

Jack Kearney · R P Cody · 3yo

Top-rated of 14

score 57.7 · +4.3 clear of next best (53.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=3)
R P Cody: 2/3 winners last 14d (67%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
27d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
45below average
OR 67
Form20% weight
27weak
Last 6: 8-5-5

MarketBest price 13.00 (Bet365) · 6th in the market of 14.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
2Femme Beauty 8Tanzanite Diamond
Prominent(3)
3Wie Wunderbar 9Believe Believe 10Chestnut Palace
Mid-division(4)
1Marjorie Daw 4Gentle Soda 7Ocean Fire 14Premier Princess
Hold-up / closers(4)
6Shambata 11Shay's Dream 12Coilins Girl 13Cascade Canyon
Unknown(1)
5Running Point

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Killarney 1m3f

full course data →

Sample too small to call at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 1.22

Mid (6–10)

IV 1.21

High (11–14)

IV 0.56

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 27 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
7	Ocean FirePick J: Jack Kearney · T: R P Cody · draw 5 3yo · F · bOnly ride	855	9-11	67	—	—	57.7	16/1·16.38	12/1·13.00 Bet365 · -21% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Bet36512/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00Matchbook13·13.00Smarkets12.5·12.50BetTom11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Dragon Bet11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20
2	Femme Beauty J: Danny O'Leary(7) · T: G. O'Leary · draw 6 3yo · F · bOnly rideOnly runner	143113	10-03	73	—	—	53.4	9/1·10.24	10.5·10.50 Matchbook · +3% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook10.5·10.50Smarkets9.8·9.80SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Spreadex13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50Betano13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 BetMGM6/1·7.00
3	Wie Wunderbar J: Keithen Kennedy · T: Mrs J. Harrington · draw 10 3yo · F · bDOnly ride	36213	9-13	69	—	—	51.3	5/1·6.14	4.5·4.50 Smarkets · -27% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Smarkets4.5·4.50Unibet7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50William Hill7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50Matchbook4.5·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Betfair Exchange4.4·4.40 Betfred10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20 Spreadex3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00
9	Believe Believe J: Reese Holohan(2) · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 8 3yo · G · bOnly pairing	90821	9-06	62	—	—	46.5	5/1·5.91	7/2·4.50 Bet365 · -24% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Bet3657/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50William Hill7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20 SmarketsSBK16/5·4.20Smarkets4.2·4.20Matchbook4.2·4.20Betfair Exchange4.1·4.10 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00
6	Shambata J: Patrick McGettigan(2) · T: J. P. Murtagh · draw 11 3yo · F · chpFT POnly ride	4074	9-12	68	—	—	45.6	12/1·13.65	11/1·12.00 SmarketsSBK · -12% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00Smarkets12·12.00Matchbook11.5·11.50William Hill10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00BetTom9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange10·10.00 Bet Victor17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00
8	Tanzanite Diamond J: Sam Coen · T: Adrian McGuinness · draw 13 3yo · G · bOnly pairing	345084	9-09	65	—	—	40.5	16/1·17.74	18·18.00 Matchbook Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00Smarkets16.5·16.50SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Midnite12/1·13.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70
12	Coilins Girl J: Rory Mulligan · T: J. P. Murtagh · draw 4 3yo · F · bOnly pairing	976	9-03	59	—	—	40.4	22/1·23.20	34·34.00 Matchbook · +47% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook34·34.00Smarkets22·22.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00
11	Shay's Dream J: Julian Pietropaolo(4) · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 3 3yo · G · chOnly pairing	008902	9-05	61	—	—	40.3	7/1·8.19	7.4·7.40 Matchbook · -10% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook7.4·7.40Smarkets6.8·6.80Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 Bet36511/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Paddy Power5/1·6.00
10	Chestnut Palace J: Nicola Burns(2) · T: Noel Meade · draw 7 3yo · F · chbOnly ride	745445	9-06	62	—	—	40.1	14/1·15.01	13·13.00 Matchbook · -13% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook13·13.00Smarkets12.5·12.50SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange9·9.00
4	Gentle Soda J: Conor Cusack(7) · T: E McNamara · draw 2 3yo · F · bOnly ride	075	9-12	68	—	—	38.7	25/1·25.93	60·60.00 Matchbook · +131% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook60·60.00Smarkets28·28.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00William Hill18/1·19.00Hollywood Bets18/1·19.00BetMGM16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange7·7.00
1	Marjorie Daw J: Adam Browne-Souza(7) · T: Joseph G Murphy · draw 1 3yo · F · chOnly pairing	41840	10-04	74	—	—	37.2	33/1·35.49	65·65.00 Matchbook · +83% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook65·65.00Smarkets30·30.00Bet36528/1·29.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Betano22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60
14	Premier Princess J: Mel Sheridan(7) · T: Denis Gerard Hogan · draw 9 3yo · F · bpOnly rideOnly runner	50680	8-08	50	—	—	36.9	66/1·69.61	95·95.00 Matchbook · +37% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook95·95.00Bet Victor50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Smarkets36·36.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80
5	Running Point J: Jack Cleary · T: Jarlath P Fahey · draw 14 3yo · F · bOnly runner	23680	9-12	68	—	—	33.1	25/1·25.93	50·50.00 Matchbook · +93% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook50·50.00Smarkets21·21.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00William Hill18/1·19.00 Paddy Power18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Hollywood Bets18/1·19.00Betfred18/1·19.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange7·7.00
13	Cascade Canyon J: Terry Casey(7) · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman · draw 12 3yo · G · bOnly ride	040920	9-02	58	—	—	32.6	33/1·35.49	34·34.00 Matchbook · -4% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook34·34.00Smarkets29·29.00Bet36525/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 26 bookmakers per horse with the 37% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap?

The Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap is off at 16:30 on 5 October 2026 at Killarney (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:30 Killarney?

1m3f, Flat, 14 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:30 Killarney?

Going is reported as Yielding To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:30 Killarney?

The AI top-rated runner is Ocean Fire (score 57.7, best price 13.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:30 Killarney?

The market favourite is Wie Wunderbar at a best price of 4.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Ocean Fire.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org