Who won the 19:00 Southwell (AW) on 6 October 2026?
Overbudget (IRE) won the 19:00 Southwell (AW) at SP 12.00. Ridden by Andrew Mullen. Trained by Michael Appleby.
19:00 Southwell (AW)
bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap Stakes
6f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 11 runners · £3,978 · Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stOverbudget (IRE)Andrew Mullen·Michael Appleby11/1·12.00SP
- 2ndBlack Orchid (GB)AI top pick · 51.4Rowan Scott·Richard & Peter Fahey·beaten .75 lengths15/2·8.50SP
- 3rdFantasy Obsessor (GB)Ray Dawson·Michael Appleby·beaten .5 lengths2/1F·3.00SP
Race time
1m 13.96s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Overbudget (IRE))
“Led from the start - shaken up 2f out and still in front - urged hard over 1f out - held on gamely to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 7.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way51.4/100 rating
Black Orchid
9.80Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Storm Esme
Storm Esme is the one to side with in this Southwell sprint, her progressive profile making her more appealing than her bare figures suggest, as she sits just four pounds behind the top-rated Daytona Lady on our ratings. That is a modest gap for a runner on the upgrade, and she looks capable of closing it in an open-looking Class 5 contest on standard going. Daytona Lady is the obvious danger as the top-rated runner, with Keldeo just a pound behind her and Insuspense also firmly in the mix, so this is far from a straightforward assignment. Storm Esme can reward the faith, and she is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Black Orchid
Rowan Scott · Richard & Peter Fahey · 3yo
Top-rated of 11
score 51.4 · +0.8 clear of next best (50.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong33d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight78strongLast 6: 2-2-2-2
- Ratings50% weight45below averageOR 67
- Trainer20% weight25weakRichard & Peter Fahey: 4/39 winners last 14d (10%)
MarketBest price 9.80 (Matchbook) · 4th in the market of 11.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 6f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 1.09
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.96
High (9–12)
IV 0.94
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 436 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Michael Appleby · draw 7 3yo · F · chp | 376981 | 61 | 49.7 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 2 | 5 | J: Rowan Scott · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 2 3yo · F · b | 2222 | 67 | 51.4 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: Ray Dawson · T: Michael Appleby · draw 8 4yo · F · b | 252752 | 62 | 50.7 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears · draw 4 5yo · M · gr | 442949 | 67 | 38.6 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 5 | 8 | J: William Carver · T: Ross Burdon · draw 5 4yo · F · bt | 227531 | 66 | 44.4 | 11/4·3.75 SP |
| 6 | 11 | J: James Sullivan · T: Ruth Carr · draw 1 6yo · M · bp | 772853 | 62 | 47.1 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 7 | 7 | J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding · draw 6 3yo · F · bt | 03310 | 67 | 48.2 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 8 | 6 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 3 3yo · F · brp | 085841 | 67 | 49.1 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 9 | 4 | J: Rob Hornby · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler · draw 11 3yo · F · b | 32130 | 68 | 41.3 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 10 | 9 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Simon Whitaker · draw 9 3yo · F · ch | 74325 | 67 | 36.8 | 200/1·201.00 SP |
| — | 1 | J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho · draw 12 3yo · F · b | 8712 | 69 | 48.0 | — |
| — | — | J: Neil Callan · T: William Knight · draw 10 3yo · F · b | 531833 | 68 | 43.6 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 19:00 Southwell (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Black Orchid) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 19:00 Southwell (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Overbudget (IRE) (12.00), 2. Black Orchid (GB) (8.50), 3. Fantasy Obsessor (GB) (3.00).
What was the winning time for the 19:00 Southwell (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 13.96s.
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