Who won the 20:00 Southwell (AW) on 6 October 2026?
Cliff Danger (GB) won the 20:00 Southwell (AW) at SP 4.00. Ridden by Rob Hornby. Trained by Tom Ellis.
20:00 Southwell (AW)
bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
1m4f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners · £5,234 · Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stCliff Danger (GB)Rob Hornby·Tom Ellis3/1·4.00SP
- 2ndNochebuena (GB)AI top pick · 61.2Hector Crouch·Ralph Beckett·beaten 2 lengths4/1·5.00SP
- 3rdNow Maybe (IRE)Benoit de la Sayette·George Baker·beaten 1 length14/1·15.00SP
Race time
2m 35.93s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Cliff Danger (GB))
“Held up at the back - ran wide to make ground 4f out and moved into third 3f out - nudged by the rider 2f out then hit the front over 1f out - kept finding to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way61.2/100 rating
Nochebuena
6.00Bet365
Place portion settles at 2.00 · 1/5 odds · 3 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Cliff Danger
Cliff Danger is our selection, and he looks the right one to side with in a tightly packed Southwell contest: his progressive profile stands out and the clock backs the form he has shown. He is rated 80, only a couple of pounds behind the 82-rated pair at the head of our list, a gap that is easily bridged by a horse still improving. The main dangers are Spirit of Jura and Now Maybe, who share the top rating, along with Nochebuena, just a pound behind them on 81. With so little between the leading contenders, the progressive type at the weights gets the nod, and Cliff Danger is the pick.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Nochebuena
Hector Crouch · Ralph Beckett · 3yo
Top-rated of 7
score 61.2 · +0.2 clear of next best (61.0)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong25d since last run (race-fit window)
- Ratings50% weight58averageOR 87 — highest combined rating in the field
- Form20% weight56averageLast 6: 4-2-1-2-9
- Trainer20% weight55averageRalph Beckett: 11/50 winners last 14d (22%)
MarketBest price 6.00 (Bet365) · 3rd in the market of 7.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m4f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 1.05
Mid (4–5)
IV 1.08
High (6–7)
IV 0.88
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 208 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | J: Rob Hornby · T: Tom Ellis · draw 3 3yo · G · b | 647914 | 76 | 44.4 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 42129 | 87 | 61.2 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 3 | 5 | J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: George Baker · draw 6 3yo · G · ch | 23625 | 82 | 45.4 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: Cam Hardie · T: Antony Brittain · draw 4 5yo · G · btFT T | 538267 | 77 | 42.2 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · draw 5 3yo · G · ch | 5251 | 84 | 61.0 | 1/1F·2.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 2 4yo · F · ch | 752536 | 77 | 47.3 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| — | 6 | J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Owen Burrows · draw 7 3yo · G · b | 14353 | 77 | 42.7 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:00 Southwell (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Nochebuena) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 20:00 Southwell (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Cliff Danger (GB) (4.00), 2. Nochebuena (GB) (5.00), 3. Now Maybe (IRE) (15.00).
What was the winning time for the 20:00 Southwell (AW)?
The winning time was 2m 35.93s.
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