18:00 Southwell (AW)

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)

1m · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 12 runners · £3,245 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (12 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Temple Court

No. 2 · score 46.8 · +7.1 clear of next best · best 8/1·9.20

Best value vs consensus

Ubettanotblink

80·80.00 Matchbook · +19% vs fair (consensus 66.99)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.12.36 score

Temple Court

8.80Matchbook

segment +7.8% · Flat · Standard · Class 6

Each-way46.8/100 rating

Temple Court

9.20Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Thunda StruckDiffers from our pick

Thunda Struck looks the right one to side with in this Class 6 eight-furlong contest at Southwell, topping our figures on 75 and holding a four-point advantage over the nearest pursuer. That sort of edge matters in a modest event where the bulk of the field is rated in the 50s and 60s. Temple Court is the chief danger on 71, with Courage Best on 67 and Unbeatable Fame on 66 the others to keep onside, though none of them matches our selection on the figures. Thunda Struck gets the vote.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Temple Court

Callum Hutchinson · Eve Johnson Houghton · 2yo

Top-rated of 12

score 46.8 · +7.1 clear of next best (39.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
54d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
50average
Last 6: 0-4-3-4-3
Ratings50% weight
43below average
OR 64 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
35below average
Eve Johnson Houghton: 5/36 winners last 14d (14%)

MarketBest price 9.20 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 12.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
4Thunda Struck 11Le Grand Etoile
Prominent(2)
2Temple Court 7Casablanca Dream
Mid-division(2)
5Solar Mission 12Ubettanotblink
Hold-up / closers(4)
3Arlecchino's Moon 6Unbeatable Fame 8Courage Best 10Purrista
Unknown(2)
1Kaito 9Strong Performance

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.96

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.04

High (9–12)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Temple CourtPickv1.1 J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Eve Johnson Houghton · draw 6 · combo 13/58 (22%) 2yo · G · bClass drop	04343	9-09	64	—	—	46.8	9/1·9.85	9.2·9.20 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook9.2·9.20Betfair Exchange9.2·9.20Smarkets8.8·8.80SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 William Hill7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Bet3657/1·8.00 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.5010 Bet13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50
7	Casablanca Dream J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti · draw 12 · combo 12/73 (16%) 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	6553	9-02	57	—	—	39.7	9/1·9.85	10·10.00 Matchbook · +2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook10·10.00Smarkets9.8·9.80Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Bet3657/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 William Hill13/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.507Bet13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Paddy Power6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Betano11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50
4	Thunda Struck J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: David Loughnane · draw 3 · combo 3/11 (27%) 2yo · F · bbFT B	25534	9-06	61	—	—	39.6	14/1·15.76	15.5·15.50 Matchbook · -2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook15.5·15.50Betfair Exchange15.5·15.50Smarkets14.5·14.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00
1	Kaito J: Jack Callan · T: George Boughey · draw 2 · combo 4/55 (7%) 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing	747	9-09	64	—	—	38.8	2/1·2.96	6/4·2.50 Paddy Power · -15% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Paddy Power6/4·2.50Betfair Sportsbook6/4·2.50Matchbook2.42·2.42Smarkets2.42·2.42Betfair Exchange2.4·2.40 Coral11/8·2.38 Ladbrokes11/8·2.38 LiveScore Bet11/8·2.38 William Hill11/8·2.38Virgin Bet11/8·2.38Betfred5/4·2.25Hollywood Bets5/4·2.25Star Sports5/4·2.25 Spreadex5/4·2.25 BetTom5/4·2.25 Bet3655/4·2.25 Boyle Sports5/4·2.25 Unibet5/4·2.25 10 Bet5/4·2.25 Quinn Bet5/4·2.25 SportingIndex5/4·2.25 Dragon Bet5/4·2.25 SmarketsSBK5/4·2.25 Midnite5/4·2.25 7Bet5/4·2.25 Bet Victor6/5·2.20 Betano6/5·2.20 BetWright6/5·2.20 BetMGM11/10·2.10
6	Unbeatable Fame J: Cam Hardie · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 5 · combo 1/40 (3%) 2yo · G · bClass drop	76370	9-03	58	—	—	36.3	66/1·66.99	190·190.00 Smarkets · +184% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets190·190.00Matchbook140·140.00SmarketsSBK100/1·101.00 Betfair Exchange80·80.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 Betfred40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00BetMGM40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00
11	Le Grand Etoile J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 7 · combo 1/20 (5%) 2yo · G · bbFT BOnly pairing	90575	8-05	46	—	—	33.9	22/1·22.33	34·34.00 Matchbook · +52% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook34·34.00SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00 Betfair Exchange30·30.00Smarkets30·30.00Bet36520/1·21.00 Coral18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00Hollywood Bets18/1·19.00BetTom16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.007Bet16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00
8	Courage Best J: Darragh Keenan · T: Rod Millman · draw 11 · combo 1/27 (4%) 2yo · F · bOnly runner	990452	9-01	56	—	—	33.4	11/1·11.82	11.5·11.50 Betfair Exchange · -3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Matchbook11.5·11.50Smarkets11·11.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets17/2·9.50Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Bet36517/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 BetWright8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.0010 Bet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 Betano7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00
3	Arlecchino's Moon J: Clifford Lee · T: Mark Usher · draw 8 2yo · C · grClass dropOnly runner	895	9-08	63	—	—	33.2	8/1·9.19	9.2·9.20 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook9.2·9.20Betfair Exchange9·9.00Smarkets8.8·8.80SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 Star Sports13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.007Bet6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00BetMGM9/2·5.50
5	Solar Mission J: William Cox · T: Georgina Nicholls · draw 4 · combo 0/7 (0%) 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	086	9-05	60	—	—	32.7	40/1·38.09	44·44.00 Matchbook · +16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook44·44.00Smarkets42·42.00Betfair Exchange38·38.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Star Sports33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00
9	Strong Performance J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Knight · draw 9 · combo 3/19 (16%) 2yo · C · chClass drop	896	9-00	55	—	—	31.1	10/1·11.16	11.5·11.50 Betfair Exchange · +3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Matchbook11.5·11.50Smarkets11·11.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Unibet17/2·9.50 Betfred8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Bet3658/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50
10	Purrista J: Joanna Mason · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 1 · combo 4/21 (19%) 2yo · F · chOnly runner	305905	8-09	50	—	—	31.0	80/1·88.00	140·140.00 Matchbook · +59% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook140·140.00SmarketsSBK125/1·126.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 Unibet80/1·81.00 Ladbrokes80/1·81.00Hollywood Bets80/1·81.00SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00 William Hill80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 Coral80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00Smarkets65·65.00BetMGM50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00
12	Ubettanotblink J: Andrew Mullen · T: Craig Lidster · draw 10 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing	866	8-04	33	—	—	25.7	66/1·66.99	80·80.00 Matchbook · +19% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook80·80.00Smarkets80·80.00SmarketsSBK70/1·71.00 Betfair Exchange65·65.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Betano40/1·41.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 31% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)?

The Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I) is off at 18:00 on 8 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 18:00 Southwell (AW)?

1m, Class 6, Flat, 12 runners declared.

What is the going for the 18:00 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 18:00 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Temple Court (score 46.8, best price 9.20). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 18:00 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Kaito at a best price of 2.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Temple Court.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org