16:25 Southwell (AW)

Follow @attheraces On Instagram Nursery Handicap Stakes

5f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners · £5,234 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (8 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Roxa Love

No. 2 · score 60.2 · +6.4 clear of next best · best 7/2·4.60

Best value vs consensus

Needin' U

14·14.00 Matchbook · +13% vs fair (consensus 12.37)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.1-0.46 score

Dubai Charm

11.00Betfair Exchange

segment +6.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 4

Each-way60.2/100 rating

Roxa Love

4.60Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Lover GirlDiffers from our pick

Lover Girl heads our ratings on 96, a clear six pounds better than Princesse d'Orange on 90, and that margin gives her the strongest claim in this eight-runner Class 4 sprint at Southwell. Princesse d'Orange is the chief danger, while Minzelle on 86 and Roxa Love on 85 are the others most likely to make it awkward if Lover Girl is below her best. The compact five-furlong trip on the Southwell all-weather will not allow much time to recover from a slow start, though the rating gap is enough to side with her. Lover Girl is our selection, albeit on a low-confidence basis.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Roxa Love

David Egan · George Boughey · 2yo

Top-rated of 8

score 60.2 · +6.4 clear of next best (53.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Form20% weight
93very strong
Last 6: 3-1-1
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
31d since last run (fresh)
Ratings50% weight
54average
OR 81
Trainer20% weight
30weak
George Boughey: 3/26 winners last 14d (12%)

MarketBest price 4.60 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 8.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
2Roxa Love
Prominent(3)
4Princesse d'Orange 5Minzelle 6Paper View
Mid-division(2)
1Lover Girl Dubai Charm
Hold-up / closers(2)
7Needin' U 8Casino Star

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 5f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 1.09

Mid (4–6)

IV 0.96

High (7–8)

IV 0.94

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 436 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Roxa LovePick J: David Egan · T: George Boughey · draw 3 2yo · F · grDOnly pairing	311	9-06	81	—	—	60.2	9/2·5.57	4.6·4.60 Matchbook · -17% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook4.6·4.60Star Sports7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Betfair Exchange4.5·4.50Smarkets4.5·4.50BetTom7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Midnite10/3·4.33 Bet36510/3·4.33 SmarketsSBK10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00
—	Dubai Charmv1.1 J: Finley Marsh · T: Richard Hughes · draw 1 · combo 11/146 (8%) 2yo · F · bD	301304	9-06	81	—	—	53.8	11/1·12.37	10/1·11.00 William Hill · -11% vs fair Compare 20 books ▾ William Hill10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Betfair Exchange11·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00Matchbook4.2·4.20
5	Minzelle J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke · draw 2 · combo 35/158 (22%) 2yo · F · bClass dropDOnly pairing	3160	9-05	80	—	—	50.1	10/3·4.33	3.6·3.60 Smarkets · -17% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets3.6·3.60Matchbook3.55·3.55Betfair Exchange3.55·3.55 BetTom5/2·3.50 10 Bet5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Paddy Power5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 SmarketsSBK5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Bet3655/2·3.50Hollywood Bets5/2·3.50William Hill5/2·3.50 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 Spreadex2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00
1	Lover Girl J: Rowan Scott · T: Kevin Philippart de Foy · draw 4 · combo 2/19 (11%) 2yo · F · grClass dropOnly rideOnly runner	11300	9-09	84	—	—	49.4	13/2·7.42	7·7.00 Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7·7.00Matchbook7·7.00Smarkets7·7.00SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 7Bet5/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 BetWright9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Betano9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00
7	Needin' U J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 6 · combo 11/128 (9%) 2yo · F · bhDOnly runner	04513	8-12	73	—	—	48.6	11/1·12.37	14·14.00 Matchbook · +13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook14·14.00Betfair Exchange13·13.00Smarkets12.5·12.50SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.0010 Bet9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00BetWright17/2·9.50 7Bet17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 BetTom17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Coral8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50
6	Paper View J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hannon · draw 7 · combo 10/110 (9%) 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing	511936	9-03	78	—	—	48.3	15/2·8.66	7.8·7.80 Matchbook · -10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook7.8·7.80Smarkets7.6·7.60Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.007Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 Betano5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00
8	Casino Star J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke · draw 5 · combo 11/52 (21%) 2yo · C · chtFT T	262358	8-10	71	—	—	46.8	16/1·16.08	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · -10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange14·14.00Smarkets14·14.00Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.007Bet11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00
4	Princesse d'Orange J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 8 · combo 24/212 (11%) 2yo · F · bOnly runner	153094	9-06	81	—	—	46.6	15/2·8.66	8.6·8.60 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook8.6·8.60Smarkets8.4·8.40Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 Coral13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00BetMGM6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 10 Bet6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.007Bet6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 20–29 bookmakers per horse with the 24% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Follow @attheraces On Instagram Nursery Handicap Stakes?

The Follow @attheraces On Instagram Nursery Handicap Stakes is off at 16:25 on 8 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:25 Southwell (AW)?

5f, Class 4, Flat, 7 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:25 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:25 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Roxa Love (score 60.2, best price 4.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:25 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Minzelle at a best price of 3.60. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Roxa Love.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org