13:45 Ayr

Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap Stakes

1m2f · Flat · Class 5 · Heavy · 12 runners · £4,187 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (12 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Falcon Nine

No. 9 · score 47.2 · +0.8 clear of next best · best 6/1·7.20

Best value vs consensus

Idyllic

32·32.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair (consensus 26.58)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.12.64 score

Vega Storm

13.00Matchbook

segment +25.5% · Flat · Heavy · Class 5

Each-way47.2/100 rating

Falcon Nine

7.20Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: West TyroneDiffers from our pick

West Tyrone is our selection, and his progressive profile is the reason we prefer him to Motawaared, who is only three pounds better on our figures. A rating of 69 puts him level with Spanish Hustle and just ahead of Ghost Story on 67, so he is firmly in the mix. Motawaared is the chief danger at the top of the ratings, with Spanish Hustle and Ghost Story also capable of troubling him in a competitive Class 5 over ten furlongs on heavy ground. Confidence is low, but an improving horse can outrun a narrow gap on paper, so we side with West Tyrone.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Falcon Nine

Jack Nicholls · Iain Jardine · 6yo

Top-rated of 12

score 47.2 · +0.8 clear of next best (46.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
70strong
7d since last run (quick turnaround)
Form20% weight
57average
Last 6: 2-8-0-3-2-2
Trainer20% weight
48below average
Iain Jardine: 5/26 winners last 14d (19%)
Ratings50% weight
39below average
OR 58

MarketBest price 7.20 (Betfair Exchange) · 3rd in the market of 12.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
1West Tyrone 12Tap Dancer
Prominent(4)
2Naturalia 9Falcon Nine 10Vega Storm 11Sophiesticate
Mid-division(4)
3Spanish Hustle 4Royal Blaze 6Motawaared 8Idyllic
Hold-up / closers(2)
5Ghost Story 7Sweet Kiss

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ayr 1m2f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.20).

Low (1–4)

IV 0.76

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.06

High (9–12)

IV 1.20

Today: Sweet Kiss (draw 12) and Idyllic (draw 9) get the bias; Falcon Nine (draw 3) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 57 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
9	Falcon NinePick J: Jack Nicholls · T: Iain Jardine · draw 3 · combo 10/44 (23%) 6yo · G · chb	280322	9-06	58	—	—	47.2	13/2·7.59	7.2·7.20 Betfair Exchange · -5% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20Matchbook7.2·7.20Smarkets7.2·7.20Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00BetTom9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 BetMGM7/2·4.50
4	Royal Blaze J: William Pyle · T: Ewan Whillans · draw 2 · combo 0/7 (0%) 5yo · G · btpC&DOnly runner	839110	9-11	63	—	—	46.5	28/1·29.11	32·32.00 Matchbook · +10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook32·32.00Betfair Exchange30·30.00Smarkets29·29.00Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00
7	Sweet Kiss J: Jake Dickson(3) · T: Tim Easterby · draw 12 · combo 13/99 (13%) 4yo · F · bpOnly ride	262254	9-08	60	—	—	46.3	12/1·13.92	13·13.00 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook13·13.00Smarkets12.5·12.50Betfair Exchange12.5·12.50 Betfred11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 10 Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Betano17/2·9.50 Bet Victor17/2·9.50
8	Idyllic J: Alex Jary · T: Wilf Storey · draw 9 5yo · M · bOnly rideOnly runner	540364	9-06	58	—	—	44.8	25/1·26.58	32·32.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook32·32.00Betfair Exchange30·30.00Smarkets29·29.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Betfred20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 10 Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00William Hill20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Coral16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00
1	West Tyrone J: Cian Horgan(3) · T: Lizzie Quinlan · draw 6 4yo · G · bpC&DOnly runner	80317	10-02	68	—	—	41.5	16/1·16.45	18.5·18.50 Matchbook · +13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook18.5·18.50Smarkets18·18.00Betfair Exchange18·18.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00
6	Motawaared J: Lauren Young(3) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 10 · combo 15/180 (8%) 4yo · G · bp	422252	9-08	60	—	—	41.5	3/1·4.11	3.85·3.85 Matchbook · -6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook3.85·3.85Smarkets3.8·3.80Betfair Exchange3.8·3.80 SmarketsSBK13/5·3.60 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Paddy Power5/2·3.50 Spreadex5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 SportingIndex5/2·3.50 William Hill9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25Hollywood Bets9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 10 Bet9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 BetWright2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 Bet Victor2/1·3.00 Betano2/1·3.00
10	Vega Stormv1.1 J: Warren Fentiman · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 4 · combo 9/94 (10%) 3yo · G · b	504634	9-06	62	—	—	41.4	10/1·11.39	12·12.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook12·12.00Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Smarkets11.5·11.50SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Spreadex9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Midnite17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50 Betfred8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 Bet3658/1·9.00 7Bet15/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Betano7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50
5	Ghost Story J: Mason Paetel · T: John Butler · draw 11 5yo · M · brOnly rideOnly runner	334344	9-11	63	—	—	41.0	13/2·7.59	7·7.00 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook7·7.00Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80Smarkets6.8·6.80Star Sports11/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 Betfred5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Betano9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50BetTom9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Coral4/1·5.00 BetMGM7/2·4.50
3	Spanish Hustle J: Amie Waugh · T: Jim Goldie · draw 8 · combo 2/21 (10%) 8yo · G · bOnly pairing	665527	9-12	64	—	—	40.0	22/1·24.04	24·24.00 Betfair Exchange Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange24·24.00Smarkets23·23.00Matchbook22·22.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Star Sports20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 10 Bet18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 Paddy Power18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Bet36518/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00BetMGM16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00
2	Naturalia J: Shay Farmer(3) · T: Donald Whillans · draw 1 · combo 0/7 (0%) 5yo · M · bC&DOnly runner	244184	9-13	65	—	—	38.4	11/1·12.02	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Smarkets11·11.00Betfair Exchange11·11.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 William Hill17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50Bet36517/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Paddy Power8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00
11	Sophiesticate J: Kyle McHugh(5) · T: R. Mike Smith · draw 5 7yo · M · bOnly ride	331689	9-03	55	—	—	31.5	66/1·64.54	180·180.00 Matchbook · +179% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook180·180.00Smarkets170·170.00Betfair Exchange150·150.00 SmarketsSBK100/1·101.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 Paddy Power66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00William Hill50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Betfred50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 7Bet40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Midnite40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00
12	Tap Dancer J: Rhys Elliott · T: Jim Goldie · draw 7 · combo 6/48 (13%) 4yo · F · bOnly pairing	737675	8-12	50	—	—	30.1	16/1·16.45	16.5·16.50 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook16.5·16.50Betfair Exchange16.5·16.50Smarkets16·16.00Star Sports14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 7Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Midnite12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 26% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap Stakes?

The Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap Stakes is off at 13:45 on 8 October 2026 at Ayr (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 13:45 Ayr?

1m2f, Class 5, Flat, 12 runners declared.

What is the going for the 13:45 Ayr?

Going is reported as Heavy on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 13:45 Ayr?

The AI top-rated runner is Falcon Nine (score 47.2, best price 7.20). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 13:45 Ayr?

The market favourite is Motawaared at a best price of 3.85. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Falcon Nine.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org