14:55 Ayr

Heverlee Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 6 · Heavy · 10 runners · £3,664 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Launch Time

No. 4 · score 58.5 · +9.4 clear of next best · best 5/2·3.60

Best value vs consensus

Thequietman

34·34.00 Matchbook · +9% vs fair (consensus 31.22)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.11.16 score

Launch Time

3.70Matchbook

segment +24.0% · Flat · Heavy · Class 6

Each-way42.4/100 rating

Big Apple Jack

4.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: ThequietmanDiffers from our pick

Thequietman heads our ratings on 74, five pounds clear of Head For Freedom on 69, and that is enough to make him the pick in a modest Class 6 contest over seven furlongs at Ayr. The heavy ground will turn this into a stamina test, but he has the strongest figure on our numbers and the most scope to prove best of those at the top of the list. Head For Freedom is the chief danger, with Lesley's Boy and Big Apple Jack also in the mix, and any of them could close the gap if the testing conditions favour them. Thequietman gets the vote, though this is far from a confident call.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Launch Time

Hector Crouch · Cian Hughes · 4yo

Top-rated of 10

score 58.5 · +9.4 clear of next best (49.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=1)
Cian Hughes: 1/1 winners last 14d (100%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
28d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
47below average
Last 6: 9-3-1-7-2-6
Ratings50% weight
38below average
OR 57

MarketBest price 3.60 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: No confirmed front-runner — likely a slow start, race may turn into a sprint.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(3)
3Big Apple Jack 9Fair Isle Sioux 10Long Shot
Mid-division(1)
2Lesley's Boy
Hold-up / closers(5)
1Thequietman 4Launch Time 5Saxon Prince 6Head For Freedom 8Bossy Parker
Unknown(1)
7Thunder Rush

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ayr 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 1.06

Mid (5–7)

IV 0.92

High (8–10)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
4	Launch TimePickv1.1 J: Hector Crouch · T: Cian Hughes · draw 4 4yo · G · bbFT BDOnly runner	931726	9-06	57	—	—	58.5	3/1·3.90	3.6·3.60 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook3.6·3.60Betfair Exchange3.6·3.60Smarkets3.55·3.55LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50Hollywood Bets5/2·3.50William Hill5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 SmarketsSBK5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50BetMGM12/5·3.40 BetWright9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Paddy Power9/4·3.25 10 Bet9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook9/4·3.25BetTom9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 Betano2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 Bet Victor2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 Boyle Sports15/8·2.88
8	Bossy Parker J: P. J. McDonald · T: Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay · draw 3 6yo · G · brOnly pairing	251444	8-11	48	—	—	49.1	14/1·14.41	18.5·18.50 Matchbook · +28% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook18.5·18.50Betfair Exchange17.5·17.50Smarkets17.5·17.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00William Hill11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Betfred11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00
3	Big Apple Jack J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 2 · combo 11/131 (8%) 4yo · G · b	254214	9-09	60	—	—	42.4	9/2·5.40	4.8·4.80 Matchbook · -11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook4.8·4.80Betfair Exchange4.7·4.70Smarkets4.7·4.70SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 Paddy Power7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50Betfred7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 BetWright10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00
2	Lesley's Boy J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 10 · combo 18/116 (16%) 4yo · G · bv	058842	9-09	60	—	—	42.3	9/1·10.21	8.8·8.80 Betfair Exchange · -14% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80Matchbook8.8·8.80Smarkets8.8·8.80William Hill15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 Paddy Power15/2·8.50 10 Bet15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Unibet15/2·8.50 Bet36515/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Star Sports7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50
10	Long Shot J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 8 · combo 11/179 (6%) 3yo · G · bpOnly pairing	404753	8-07	46	—	—	41.5	20/1·20.41	20·20.00 Matchbook · -2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook20·20.00Smarkets19.5·19.50Betfair Exchange19·19.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.0010 Bet16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.007Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00
1	Thequietman J: Amie Waugh(3) · T: Simon Waugh · draw 6 · combo 1/21 (5%) 5yo · G · brClass drop	5998P0	9-09	60	—	—	41.0	28/1·31.22	34·34.00 Matchbook · +9% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook34·34.00Betfair Exchange30·30.00Smarkets30·30.00Spreadex25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.0010 Bet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00BetTom25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00
5	Saxon Prince J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 1 · combo 10/110 (9%) 3yo · G · cht	526096	9-05	58	—	—	39.6	5/1·6.00	6·6.00 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook6·6.00Betfair Exchange5.9·5.90Smarkets5.9·5.90SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Midnite4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00William Hill4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Bet3654/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Betfred4/1·5.00 Spreadex7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 Betano10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33
6	Head For Freedom J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 9 3yo · G · bOnly pairing	494588	9-02	55	—	—	33.4	14/1·14.41	15·15.00 Smarkets · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets15·15.00Matchbook15·15.00Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00 BetWright11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Midnite11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00
7	Thunder Rush J: Tom Eaves · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · draw 5 · combo 2/18 (11%) 3yo · G · bpFT POnly pairing	5707	8-13	52	—	—	28.2	14/1·15.61	24·24.00 Matchbook · +54% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook24·24.00Smarkets23·23.00Betfair Exchange23·23.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.0010 Bet12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Betfred11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00
9	Fair Isle Sioux J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Adam Nicol · draw 7 6yo · M · chOnly runner	65800	8-09	44	—	—	24.6	100/1·97.26	140·140.00 Matchbook · +44% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook140·140.00Smarkets140·140.00SmarketsSBK100/1·101.00 Betfair Exchange100·100.00Betfair Sportsbook80/1·81.00Paddy Power80/1·81.00 Unibet80/1·81.00 Quinn Bet80/1·81.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 10 Bet80/1·81.00 Bet36580/1·81.00 BetTom80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00Ladbrokes80/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00 Betfred80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Coral66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 20% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Heverlee Handicap Stakes?

The Heverlee Handicap Stakes is off at 14:55 on 8 October 2026 at Ayr (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:55 Ayr?

7f, Class 6, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:55 Ayr?

Going is reported as Heavy on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:55 Ayr?

The AI top-rated runner is Launch Time (score 58.5, best price 3.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:55 Ayr?

The market favourite is Launch Time at a best price of 3.60.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org