16:05 Ayr

San Miguel Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 5 · Heavy · 10 runners · £4,187 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Empirestateofmind

No. 5 · score 50.7 · +2.3 clear of next best · best 5/2·3.60

Best value vs consensus

Monsieur Kodi

55·55.00 Matchbook · +12% vs fair (consensus 49.06)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.12.00 score

Empirestateofmind

3.10Betfair Exchange

segment +25.5% · Flat · Heavy · Class 5

Each-way47.5/100 rating

Valentine Catcher

10.00Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: EmpirestateofmindAgrees with our pick

Empirestateofmind heads our ratings on 84, a single pound ahead of Stanage, and that narrow edge is enough to make him the pick in a ten-runner Class 5 over 7f on heavy ground. Stanage is the main danger on 83, effectively level on our figures, while Monsieur Kodi (79) and One Night Thunder (78) are a few pounds further back and need to improve to make it a contest. The rest of the field look to have a fair bit to find on these figures, so this looks a race for the top four, and Empirestateofmind gets the vote narrowly. Our selection is Empirestateofmind.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Empirestateofmind

Jason Hart · John & Sean Quinn · 8yo

Top-rated of 10

score 50.7 · +2.3 clear of next best (48.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
70strong
9d since last run (quick turnaround)
Form20% weight
68strong
Last 6: 5-0-0-1-2-1
Ratings50% weight
47below average
OR 71
Trainer20% weight
33weak
John & Sean Quinn: 2/16 winners last 14d (13%)

MarketBest price 3.60 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
10Valentine Catcher
Prominent(7)
2Monsieur Kodi 3Cisco Disco 5Empirestateofmind 6The Gay Blade 7Ashen 8Emery Down 9Tactical Plan
Mid-division(1)
4Stanage
Hold-up / closers(1)
1One Night Thunder

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ayr 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 1.06

Mid (5–7)

IV 0.92

High (8–10)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	EmpirestateofmindPickv1.1 J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 9 · combo 10/110 (9%) 8yo · G · bbOn last winning markCGoing 1/2	500121	9-11	71	—	—	50.7	5/2·3.59	3.6·3.60 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook3.6·3.60Betfair Exchange3.6·3.60Smarkets3.5·3.50SmarketsSBK12/5·3.40 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25Unibet85/40·3.13 Midnite2/1·3.00 BetTom2/1·3.00 William Hill2/1·3.00Hollywood Bets2/1·3.00Star Sports2/1·3.00 Paddy Power2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 7Bet2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Bet3652/1·3.00 Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 BetMGM2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Betfred15/8·2.88 10 Bet15/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.88 Dragon Bet15/8·2.88 Bet Victor7/4·2.75 Betano7/4·2.75
6	The Gay Blade J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 8 · combo 10/44 (23%) 7yo · G · bC&D	111508	9-09	69	—	—	48.4	40/1·40.69	60·60.00 Matchbook · +48% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook60·60.00Smarkets55·55.00Betfair Exchange50·50.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.007Bet30/1·31.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00
10	Valentine Catcher J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 5 · combo 41/340 (12%) 5yo · G · bp	723352	9-00	60	—	—	47.5	17/2·9.57	10·10.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook10·10.00Smarkets10·10.00Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 William Hill15/2·8.50 Bet36515/2·8.50 BetTom7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Midnite7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.007Bet13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00
2	Monsieur Kodi J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 1 · combo 9/94 (10%) 7yo · G · bp	174246	10-00	74	—	—	46.5	50/1·49.06	55·55.00 Matchbook · +12% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook55·55.00Betfair Exchange55·55.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00Smarkets50·50.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Star Sports40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.007Bet40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00BetTom40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00
1	One Night Thunder J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 6 6yo · G · chClass dropOn last winning markC&DOnly runner	876531	10-01	70	—	—	45.0	6/1·7.18	5/1·6.00 Coral · -16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Coral5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.0010 Bet5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00 Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Betfair Exchange6·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00Matchbook6·6.00Smarkets6·6.00Midnite9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.507Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00
8	Emery Down J: Oisin Orr · T: John Ryan · draw 7 4yo · F · chpDOnly runner	426153	9-05	65	—	—	42.8	11/1·11.97	12·12.00 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook12·12.00Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Smarkets11.5·11.50LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Spreadex10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 7Bet17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50
7	Ashen J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 3 · combo 20/133 (15%) 4yo · G · chClass drop	202523	9-08	68	—	—	42.4	9/1·10.17	9.2·9.20 Matchbook · -10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook9.2·9.20Betfair Exchange9.2·9.20Smarkets9·9.00Paddy Power15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Bet36515/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50BetMGM15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 Midnite7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Spreadex11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50
3	Cisco Disco J: Cian Horgan(5) · T: R. Mike Smith · draw 10 8yo · G · bCOnly pairing	870671	10-00	74	—	—	42.2	22/1·22.74	22·22.00 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook22·22.00Betfair Exchange22·22.00Smarkets22·22.00SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 10 Bet18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Midnite18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00
9	Tactical Plan J: Hector Crouch · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 4 · combo 0/9 (0%) 4yo · G · b	480440	9-04	64	—	—	38.8	25/1·25.13	26·26.00 Matchbook · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook26·26.00Betfair Exchange26·26.00Smarkets25·25.00Bet36520/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00William Hill20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 10 Bet20/1·21.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00
4	Stanage J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 2 · combo 11/131 (8%) 5yo · G · bClass drop	57073	9-11	71	—	—	38.8	5/1·5.98	6.2·6.20 Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20Matchbook6.2·6.20Smarkets6.2·6.20Bet3659/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Midnite4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 Paddy Power7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 Bet Victor10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 20% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the San Miguel Handicap Stakes?

The San Miguel Handicap Stakes is off at 16:05 on 8 October 2026 at Ayr (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:05 Ayr?

7f, Class 5, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:05 Ayr?

Going is reported as Heavy on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:05 Ayr?

The AI top-rated runner is Empirestateofmind (score 50.7, best price 3.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:05 Ayr?

The market favourite is Empirestateofmind at a best price of 3.60.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org