16:38 Ayr

Outcider Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 6 · Heavy · 13 runners · £3,664 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (14 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Rory's Gold

No. 1 · score 48.7 · +1.5 clear of next best · best 17/2·9.40

Best value vs consensus

Ravishing Beauty

24·24.00 Betfair Exchange · +19% vs fair (consensus 20.17)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.11.97 score

Rory's Gold

9.60Matchbook

segment +24.0% · Flat · Heavy · Class 6

Each-way48.7/100 rating

Rory's Gold

9.40Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: BlufferonthebusDiffers from our pick

Blufferonthebus is the pick in a wide-open Class 6 over eight furlongs on heavy ground at Ayr, and the progressive profile is what sets her apart from the top-rated Toralou. She sits only three pounds behind that rival on our figures, a gap her upward trajectory can bridge in a field of 14 with little to separate the principals. Toralou is the chief danger, while Ey Up Its Jazz and Gainsbourg are both a pound better off than our selection and cannot be dismissed. Blufferonthebus is our selection, though this is a competitive heat.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Rory's Gold

Amie Waugh(3) · Simon Waugh · 4yo

Top-rated of 14

score 48.7 · +1.5 clear of next best (47.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
70strong
13d since last run (quick turnaround)
Form20% weight
52average
Last 6: 2-8-8-7-3-1
Trainer20% weight
50small sample (n=5)
Simon Waugh: 1/5 winners last 14d (20%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Ratings50% weight
43below average
OR 64 — highest combined rating in the field

MarketBest price 9.40 (Betfair Exchange) · 5th in the market of 14.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
1Rory's Gold 12Evelyn's Phoenix
Prominent(4)
2Toralou 8Keats House 9Penelope's Sister 13Hear The Drums
Mid-division(2)
3Golden Caviar 14Flying Moonlight
Hold-up / closers(4)
4Blufferonthebus 5Ravishing Beauty 11Scheffler Myrrh
Unknown(2)
6Gainsbourg 7Ey Up Its Jazz

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ayr 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 1.06

Mid (6–10)

IV 0.92

High (11–14)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	Rory's GoldPickv1.1 J: Amie Waugh(3) · T: Simon Waugh · draw 8 · combo 1/21 (5%) 4yo · G · gr	288731	9-13	64	—	—	48.7	10/1·10.76	9.4·9.40 Betfair Exchange · -13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40Matchbook9.2·9.20Smarkets9·9.00Star Sports15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 Betfred7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00William Hill7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 Bet3657/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50BetMGM13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00
12	Evelyn's Phoenix J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 11 · combo 42/342 (12%) 5yo · G · btpD	906431	9-01	52	—	—	47.3	16/1·17.48	18.5·18.50 Matchbook · +6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook18.5·18.50Betfair Exchange18·18.00Smarkets18·18.00SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Unibet12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Midnite12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Bet Victor11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00
5	Ravishing Beauty J: P. J. McDonald · T: Jedd O'Keeffe · draw 13 5yo · M · bpClass drop2lb below win markDOnly runner	133489	9-09	60	—	—	46.3	20/1·20.17	24·24.00 Betfair Exchange · +19% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange24·24.00Matchbook24·24.00Smarkets22·22.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00BetTom12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Bet Victor11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00
4	Blufferonthebus J: Sam James · T: Craig Lidster · draw 5 · combo 0/17 (0%) 5yo · M · bOnly pairing	329372	9-10	61	—	—	44.0	7/1·8.07	7.4·7.40 Smarkets · -8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets7.4·7.40Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40Matchbook7.4·7.40SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 7Bet9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.5010 Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Betano4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00
6	Gainsbourg J: Shane Gray · T: Daragh Bourke · draw 14 · combo 4/13 (31%) 8yo · G · bb	7000	9-09	60	—	—	43.3	28/1·30.93	26·26.00 Matchbook · -16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook26·26.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00Smarkets26·26.00Betfair Exchange24·24.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 Paddy Power22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Midnite20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00Betano18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00
8	Keats House J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 9 · combo 11/131 (8%) 4yo · G · bbClass drop	755542	9-08	59	—	—	41.5	13/2·7.40	6·6.00 Betfair Exchange · -19% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange6·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00Matchbook6·6.00Smarkets5.9·5.90LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.507Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Betfred4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00
13	Hear The Drums J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 12 · combo 18/116 (16%) 3yo · G · bD	087136	9-00	54	—	—	40.9	22/1·22.86	21·21.00 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook21·21.00Smarkets19.5·19.50SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange19·19.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.0010 Bet16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Betano14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00
3	Golden Caviar J: Hector Crouch · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 7 · combo 0/9 (0%) 3yo · G · bbFT BClass drop	55368	9-10	64	—	—	39.7	40/1·39.00	38·38.00 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook38·38.00Smarkets34·34.00Betfair Exchange32·32.00 SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00 Coral28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Boyle Sports28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00Midnite28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Betano22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00
14	Flying Moonlight J: Greg Fairley · T: Sandy Thomson · draw 1 3yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	73324	8-10	50	—	—	38.0	15/2·8.74	8.2·8.20 Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20Matchbook8·8.00Smarkets7.8·7.80SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50BetMGM11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Betano9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00
9	Penelope's Sister J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 10 · combo 0/7 (0%) 6yo · M · bClass dropOnly pairing	567234	9-06	57	—	—	37.0	15/2·8.74	7.8·7.80 Betfair Exchange · -11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7.8·7.80Matchbook7.8·7.80Smarkets7.6·7.60Coral6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Midnite11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Betano5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00
—	Myrrh J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 4 · combo 9/106 (8%) 3yo · F · btFT TFirst after wind opOnly rideOnly runner	34687	9-06	60	—	—	35.8	28/1·28.24	22/1·23.00 Coral · -18% vs fair Compare 18 books ▾ Coral22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Paddy Power22/1·23.00 Betfair Exchange23·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Matchbook5.7·5.70
11	Scheffler J: Connor Beasley · T: Adrian Nicholls · draw 2 3yo · G · bbOnly runner	990473	9-03	57	—	—	33.5	50/1·55.13	75·75.00 Matchbook · +36% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook75·75.00Smarkets70·70.00SmarketsSBK66/1·67.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.007Bet40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange32·32.00
2	Toralou J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 6 5yo · M · bOnly runner	726747	9-11	62	—	—	33.4	11/1·12.10	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -5% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Smarkets11·11.00Betfair Exchange11·11.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Coral17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Bet36517/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00BetTom8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 Betano7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00
7	Ey Up Its Jazz J: David Nolan · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · draw 3 · combo 3/36 (8%) 7yo · G · chOnly pairing	86800	9-08	59	—	—	30.7	12/1·13.45	13.5·13.50 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook13.5·13.50Betfair Exchange13.5·13.50Smarkets13·13.00SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 BetTom9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 18–29 bookmakers per horse with the 35% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Outcider Handicap Stakes?

The Outcider Handicap Stakes is off at 16:38 on 8 October 2026 at Ayr (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:38 Ayr?

1m, Class 6, Flat, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:38 Ayr?

Going is reported as Heavy on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:38 Ayr?

The AI top-rated runner is Rory's Gold (score 48.7, best price 9.40). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:38 Ayr?

The market favourite is Keats House at a best price of 6.00. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Rory's Gold.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org