Who won the 20:00 Newcastle (AW) on 12 October 2026?
Intrusively (GB) won the 20:00 Newcastle (AW) at SP 6.00. Ridden by Kevin Stott. Trained by Michael Appleby.
20:00 Newcastle (AW)
Get Raceday Ready Handicap Stakes
7f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 13 runners · £3,978 · Monday, 12 October 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 6thRace report
- 1stIntrusively (GB)Kevin Stott·Michael Appleby5/1·6.00SP
- 2ndAtmosphere (GB)Saffie Osborne·Richard Spencer·beaten 0.3 lengths3/1F·4.00SP
- 3rdAbduction (FR)Jake Dickson·Jim Goldie·beaten 3.25 lengths7/1·8.00SP
Race time
1m 25.34s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Intrusively (GB))
“Prominent early - nudged into action over 2f out - urged hard 2f out - stayed on strongly inside final furlong - challenged for the lead 110yds out - got up near the line to win”
AI top-rated Flowstate (score 50.9) finished 6th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 11.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way47.5/100 rating
Intrusively
8.00Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Havana Rum
Havana Rum is our selection, and the case rests on a progressive profile and a fitness edge that make him the pick even though Regalian sits three pounds higher on our figures. At 80 he is only narrowly behind the top-rated runner, and that small gap looks bridgeable if his recent improvement continues over this 7f at Newcastle. Regalian is the chief danger on raw ability, while Belgrave on 79 and Abduction on 77 are also within range in a competitive 13-runner Class 5. This is a tight contest and confidence is low, but Havana Rum is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Flowstate
Mark Winn · David O'Meara · 5yo
Top-rated of 13
score 50.9 · +2.5 clear of next best (48.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong17d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight53averageLast 6: 1-1-4-1-5-6
- Ratings50% weight49below averageOR 73 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight30weakDavid O'Meara: 5/42 winners last 14d (12%)
MarketBest price 101.00 (Virgin Bet) · 4th in the market of 13.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 7f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–5)
IV 0.94
Mid (6–9)
IV 1.06
High (10–13)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 632 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | J: Kevin Stott · T: Michael Appleby · draw 3 4yo · G · chtp | 447975 | 68 | 47.5 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer · draw 2 4yo · G · bv | 322530 | 70 | 41.6 | 3/1F·4.00 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 7 8yo · G · b | 332436 | 72 | 44.7 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 10 6yo · G · b | 338284 | 73 | 48.4 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 5 | 11 | J: Jason Hart · T: Tristan Davidson · draw 1 4yo · G · bb | 261066 | 68 | 44.2 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 6 | 2 | J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 5 5yo · G · bv | 114156 | 73 | 50.9 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 7 | 10 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Alan Brown · draw 6 5yo · G · b | 501480 | 68 | 44.5 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Katie Scott · draw 8 5yo · G · brb | 533159 | 69 | 42.7 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 9 | 5 | J: David Nolan · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · draw 12 4yo · G · bp | 688868 | 71 | 40.2 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 10 | 8 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 11 4yo · G · bv | 606357 | 68 | 44.0 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 11 | 12 | J: Cam Hardie · T: Antony Brittain · draw 9 9yo · G · bv | 219712 | 66 | 46.1 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 12 | 13 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Fred Watson · draw 13 4yo · G · bp | 54000 | 60 | 31.6 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
| 13 | 3 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Fred Watson · draw 4 4yo · G · grFirst after wind op | 88050 | 73 | 28.8 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:00 Newcastle (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Flowstate) finished 6.
What were the placings in the 20:00 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Intrusively (GB) (6.00), 2. Atmosphere (GB) (4.00), 3. Abduction (FR) (8.00).
What was the winning time for the 20:00 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 25.34s.
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