14:12 Curragh

Ireland

Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)

1m · Flat · Yielding · 17 runners · €15,000 · Thursday, 15 October 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (17 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Lunar Empress

No. 12 · score 53.9 · +0.3 clear of next best · best 13/8·2.68

Best value vs consensus

Clash

100/1·101.00 Betfair Sportsbook · +3% vs fair (consensus 98.37)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 26 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way53.6/100 rating

Belicoso

5.90Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Lunar Empress

Shane Foley · Mrs J. Harrington · 2yo

Top-rated of 17

score 53.9 · +0.3 clear of next best (53.6)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
37d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
59average
Last 6: 2-5-4-2
Ratings50% weight
57average
OR 86 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
25weak
Mrs J. Harrington: 3/31 winners last 14d (10%)

MarketBest price 2.68 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(2)
2Maximilien Luce 12Lunar Empress
Hold-up / closers(3)
3Belicoso 4Clash 17Savannah Sun
Unknown(12)
1Anthony Of Lisbon 5Even Par 6Rare Blend 7The Captains Day 8Blue Glory 9Viola Young 10The Boogeyman 11Woodstream 13Silent Promise 14Ocean Phoenix 15Celestial Order 16Lori Darlin

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Curragh 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–6)

IV 0.96

Mid (7–12)

IV 0.99

High (13–17)

IV 1.04

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 211 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
12	Lunar EmpressPick J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington · draw 8 2yo · F · bp	2542	8-13	86	—	—	53.9	11/4·3.67	2.68·2.68 Betfair Exchange · -27% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange2.68·2.68 Bet36513/8·2.63Hollywood Bets6/4·2.50Boyle Sports6/4·2.50 Quinn Bet6/4·2.50 Betfred6/4·2.50 Coral6/4·2.50 Ladbrokes6/4·2.50 Midnite6/4·2.50 SportingIndex6/4·2.50 Spreadex6/4·2.50 William Hill6/4·2.50 Bet Victor6/4·2.50 BetMGM6/4·2.50 Betano6/4·2.50Matchbook2.46·2.46BetWright11/8·2.38 Dragon Bet11/8·2.38 LiveScore Bet11/8·2.38Virgin Bet11/8·2.38Betfair Sportsbook11/8·2.38Paddy Power11/8·2.38 Unibet11/8·2.38 BetTom11/8·2.38 Star Sports11/8·2.38Smarkets2.24·2.24SmarketsSBK6/5·2.20
3	Belicoso J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 15 2yo · C · bvFT VOnly pairing	7635	9-04	81	—	—	53.6	7/1·8.07	5.9·5.90 Matchbook · -27% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Matchbook5.9·5.90Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Betfair Exchange5.3·5.30 Star Sports4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00
7	The Captains Day J: Colin Keane · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 5 2yo · C · bOnly pairing	476	9-04	82	—	—	43.8	17/2·9.54	6/1·7.00 Paddy Power · -27% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Unibet11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Matchbook6.4·6.40Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20 Star Sports5/1·6.00Smarkets5.6·5.60SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50
10	The Boogeyman J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel McLoughlin · draw 12 2yo · C · bOnly runner	—	9-00	—	—	—	30.0	28/1·30.83	20/1·21.00 Bet Victor · -32% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Star Sports18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Matchbook18·18.00SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50
11	Woodstream J: Nathan Crosse · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 2 2yo · C · bOnly pairing	—	9-00	—	—	—	26.0	10/1·11.01	9.6·9.60 Matchbook · -13% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook9.6·9.60Betfair Exchange9·9.00 Bet36515/2·8.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.50BetTom6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Bet Victor6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Smarkets5.9·5.90SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50
15	Celestial Order J: Chris Hayes · T: Miss Natalia Lupini · draw 10 2yo · F · chOnly runner	—	8-09	—	—	—	26.0	28/1·30.83	20/1·21.00 Bet Victor · -32% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Star Sports18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Matchbook18.5·18.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange17·17.00
13	Silent Promise J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness · draw 6 2yo · F · b	—	8-13	—	—	—	20.5	50/1·49.92	44·44.00 Matchbook · -12% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook44·44.00Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Star Sports28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Betfair Exchange29·29.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00
5	Even Par J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 14 2yo · G · bOnly pairing	—	9-04	—	—	—	19.0	33/1·33.77	32·32.00 Matchbook · -5% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook32·32.00Bet36525/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Betfred22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 Betfair Exchange22·22.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets18/1·19.00Smarkets17.5·17.50Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00
9	Viola Young J: Robert Whearty · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 17 2yo · F · bOnly ride	—	9-01	—	—	—	19.0	40/1·38.17	32·32.00 Matchbook · -16% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook32·32.00Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Star Sports22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Betfair Exchange22·22.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00
1	Anthony Of Lisbon J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien · draw 3 2yo · C · bOnly pairing	50	9-08	—	—	—	17.5	18/1·19.09	14/1·15.00 Paddy Power · -21% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Paddy Power14/1·15.00Matchbook14.5·14.50Bet36512/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Betano12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Betfair Exchange13·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00Smarkets10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00
14	Ocean Phoenix J: Jamie Powell · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman · draw 13 2yo · F · chOnly runner	7	8-11	—	—	—	17.0	16/1·17.62	13.5·13.50 Matchbook · -23% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook13.5·13.50Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Betfair Exchange13·13.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Unibet11/1·12.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00Smarkets9.6·9.60SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00
2	Maximilien Luce J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien · draw 7 2yo · C · b	0	9-08	—	—	—	15.5	11/1·11.75	8.8·8.80 Matchbook · -25% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook8.8·8.80Bet36515/2·8.50 Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00BetTom13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50BetWright13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Smarkets6.2·6.20SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00
6	Rare Blend J: W. J. Lee · T: John Joseph Murphy · draw 16 2yo · G · ch	—	9-04	—	—	—	15.0	28/1·30.83	20/1·21.00 Bet Victor · -32% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Star Sports18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Matchbook18.5·18.50Betfair Exchange18·18.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00
16	Lori Darlin J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Noel Meade · draw 9 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	8	8-09	—	—	—	10.5	100/1·98.37	100/1·101.00 Betfair Sportsbook · +3% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 Bet36580/1·81.00 Betfair Exchange70·70.00Matchbook70·70.00BetWright66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Bet Victor66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Coral50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00
17	Savannah Sun J: Leigh Roche · T: Martin Hassett · draw 11 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	000	8-09	—	—	—	10.0	100/1·98.37	150/1·151.00 Betfair Sportsbook · +54% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook150/1·151.00Paddy Power150/1·151.00Matchbook100·100.00Betfair Exchange100·100.00 Bet36580/1·81.00 William Hill80/1·81.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00Unibet80/1·81.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Star Sports40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00
8	Blue Glory J: Jessica O'Gorman(7) · T: Aengus King · draw 4 2yo · G · rnOnly pairing	9	9-02	—	—	—	8.2	100/1·98.37	150/1·151.00 Betfair Sportsbook · +54% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook150/1·151.00Paddy Power150/1·151.00 Betfair Exchange100·100.00Matchbook100·100.00Bet36580/1·81.00 William Hill80/1·81.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00Unibet80/1·81.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Betfred50/1·51.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00
4	Clash J: Andrew Slattery · T: Josh Halley · draw 1 2yo · C · btOnly pairing	00	9-04	—	—	—	7.0	100/1·98.37	100/1·101.00 Betfair Sportsbook · +3% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 Betfair Exchange80·80.00Matchbook80·80.00Bet36566/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 25–27 bookmakers per horse with the 47% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)?

The Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series) is off at 14:12 on 15 October 2026 at Curragh (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:12 Curragh?

1m, Flat, 17 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:12 Curragh?

Going is reported as Yielding on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:12 Curragh?

The AI top-rated runner is Lunar Empress (score 53.9, best price 2.68). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:12 Curragh?

The market favourite is Lunar Empress at a best price of 2.68.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org