17:00 Southwell (AW)

Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 11 runners · £5,234 · Thursday, 15 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (11 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Jungle Ruler

No. 2 · score 57.5 · +1.4 clear of next best · best 5/1·6.00

Best value vs consensus

Island Bear

8.8·8.80 Betfair Exchange · +24% vs fair (consensus 7.09)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way57.5/100 rating

Jungle Ruler

6.00Betfair Sportsbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: RajekoDiffers from our pick

Rajeko looks the one to beat in this Southwell Class 4 over a mile, as our ratings put him 8 lb clear of Jungle Ruler and a good deal further ahead of the rest of the 11 runners. That sort of advantage on the numbers gives him a sizeable cushion if he merely repeats his best on the Standard surface. Jungle Ruler is the main danger, with Diligent Resdev and Island Bear next best and closely bunched behind, though none has the same level of ability on our figures. Rajeko is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Jungle Ruler

Jason Watson · Michael Appleby · 3yo

Top-rated of 11

score 57.5 · +1.4 clear of next best (56.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
18d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
63average
Michael Appleby: 8/32 winners last 14d (25%)
Ratings50% weight
55average
OR 82 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
38below average
Last 6: 5-4-3-2-7-6

MarketBest price 6.00 (Betfair Sportsbook) · 2nd in the market of 11.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.96

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.04

High (9–11)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Jungle RulerPick J: Jason Watson · T: Michael Appleby · draw 5 3yo · G · bpOnly runner	543276	9-13	82	—	—	57.5	11/2·6.75	5/1·6.00 Betfair Sportsbook · -11% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00Smarkets5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5.3·5.30Matchbook5.3·5.30Betfred4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 BetWright7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 BetMGM10/3·4.33 Bet36510/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33
3	Raggaas J: Harry Davies · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 7 3yo · G · btOnly runner	442167	9-12	81	—	—	56.1	14/1·15.53	16·16.00 Matchbook · +3% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook16·16.00Smarkets15.5·15.50SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50 Bet36512/1·13.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Star Sports11/1·12.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00BetMGM9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00
5	Nursia J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 8 3yo · G · ch	51582	9-10	79	—	—	50.3	9/1·10.13	8.6·8.60 Smarkets · -15% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets8.6·8.60Matchbook8.6·8.60SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 Bet36515/2·8.50 Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00Betfred7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 BetMGM6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00
1	Rajeko J: Hector Crouch · T: Michael Bell · draw 10 4yo · G · bClass dropOnly rideOnly runner	000095	10-00	80	—	—	49.2	22/1·22.95	20/1·21.00 Bet365 · -8% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36520/1·21.00Matchbook20·20.00Smarkets19.5·19.50SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00
6	Magic Trip J: P. J. McDonald · T: Andrew Balding · draw 3 3yo · G · b	350523	9-08	77	—	—	48.1	4/1·5.06	3/1·4.00 William Hill · -21% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ William Hill3/1·4.00Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00Bet3653/1·4.00 Paddy Power3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00Matchbook3.9·3.90Betfair Exchange3.9·3.90Smarkets3.85·3.85BetTom11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 SmarketsSBK11/4·3.75 Betano11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook11/4·3.75Star Sports11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 Midnite5/2·3.50 7Bet5/2·3.50 BetWright5/2·3.50 BetMGM5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 Dragon Bet5/2·3.50
9	Island Bear J: Rossa Ryan · T: Dr Richard Newland · draw 1 3yo · G · bbDOnly runner	464513	9-07	76	—	—	46.8	6/1·7.09	8.8·8.80 Betfair Exchange · +24% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80Smarkets8.4·8.40SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00Matchbook6.2·6.20Midnite5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Unibet9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50
8	Peel Park J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian · draw 11 3yo · G · bOnly runner	66755	9-07	76	—	—	46.3	10/1·11.14	9.6·9.60 Matchbook · -14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook9.6·9.60Smarkets9.4·9.40SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Bet3658/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80 William Hill15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50Spreadex15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00Virgin Bet13/2·7.50BetMGM13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 Paddy Power6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50
7	Mystic Moment J: Luke Morris · T: Neil Mulholland · draw 9 3yo · F · bOnly runner	65825	9-08	77	—	—	44.8	28/1·31.06	34·34.00 Matchbook · +10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook34·34.00Smarkets32·32.00SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00 Betfair Exchange28·28.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Unibet22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00
10	Light Speed J: James Sullivan · T: Ruth Carr · draw 6 6yo · G · b	38946	9-05	71	—	—	40.7	28/1·28.36	28·28.00 Matchbook Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook28·28.00Smarkets28·28.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange25·25.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Midnite20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00BetMGM18/1·19.00
4	Diligent Resdev J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 2 5yo · G · bOnly runner	96960	9-12	78	—	—	40.4	17/2·9.45	9.4·9.40 Smarkets Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets9.4·9.40Matchbook9.2·9.20SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange9·9.00 Midnite13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 BetTom6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00Bet3656/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Betano11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.507Bet11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50
11	Illy's Roo J: Cieren Fallon · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 4 3yo · G · bDOnly runner	154996	9-04	73	—	—	38.8	22/1·22.95	18/1·19.00 Bet365 · -17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36518/1·19.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00Smarkets17·17.00William Hill16/1·17.00Matchbook16.5·16.50SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 Betfair Exchange15.5·15.50 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 35% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes?

The Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes is off at 17:00 on 15 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 17:00 Southwell (AW)?

1m, Class 4, Flat, 11 runners declared.

What is the going for the 17:00 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 17:00 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Jungle Ruler (score 57.5, best price 6.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 17:00 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Magic Trip at a best price of 4.00. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Jungle Ruler.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org