19:30 Southwell (AW)

attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes

6f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 9 runners · £5,234 · Thursday, 15 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (9 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Town Queen

No. 8 · score 58.2 · +2.8 clear of next best · best 9/2·5.50

Best value vs consensus

Ruby's Profit

18·18.00 Matchbook · +8% vs fair (consensus 16.74)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way58.2/100 rating

Town Queen

5.50SmarketsSBK

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Town Queen

Clifford Lee · K. R. Burke · 3yo

Top-rated of 9

score 58.2 · +2.8 clear of next best (55.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
23d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
73strong
Last 6: 2-2-2-1-7-1
Ratings50% weight
54average
OR 81
Trainer20% weight
33weak
K. R. Burke: 5/39 winners last 14d (13%)

MarketBest price 5.50 (SmarketsSBK) · 4th in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 3 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Front-runners(3)
7Ruby's Profit 8Town Queen 9Zighy
Prominent(3)
3Yordan 4Hunky Dory 5The Untamed
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
6New Image
Unknown(2)
1Return of The Gods 2Wicket Keeper

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 1.09

Mid (4–6)

IV 0.96

High (7–9)

IV 0.94

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 436 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
8	Town QueenPick J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke · draw 5 · combo 35/158 (22%) 3yo · F · bC&DGoing 2/2	222171	9-06	81	—	—	58.2	6/1·7.08	9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK · -22% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Spreadex9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50Smarkets5.5·5.507Bet9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50Matchbook5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5·5.00
1	Return of The Gods J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell · draw 2 · combo 12/55 (22%) 3yo · C · bDOnly pairing	821421	9-10	85	—	—	55.4	9/2·5.58	4/1·5.00 Bet365 · -10% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet3654/1·5.00Matchbook4.7·4.70Betfair Exchange4.6·4.60Smarkets4.6·4.60William Hill7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 7Bet10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Paddy Power3/1·4.00
6	New Image J: Darragh Keenan · T: Michael Herrington · draw 4 · combo 4/6 (67%) 6yo · G · bC&DGoing 2/3	005811	9-09	83	—	—	53.9	5/1·5.79	5.2·5.20 Betfair Exchange · -10% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20Matchbook5.1·5.10Bet3654/1·5.00Smarkets4.9·4.90BetTom7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 7Bet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33
9	Zighy J: Jack Callan · T: George Boughey · draw 9 · combo 4/55 (7%) 3yo · F · bpClass drop	432343	9-04	79	—	—	53.5	17/2·9.66	7.6·7.60 Matchbook · -21% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Matchbook7.6·7.60Smarkets7.6·7.60Bet36513/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40 7Bet6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00
4	Hunky Dory J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: Linda Perratt · draw 1 · combo 3/20 (15%) 4yo · G · chpClass dropDOnly runner	863610	9-09	83	—	—	52.4	22/1·24.47	20/1·21.00 Paddy Power · -14% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Paddy Power20/1·21.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Unibet18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00Smarkets18.5·18.50Matchbook18·18.00Bet Victor16/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange11·11.00
3	Yordan J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 8 · combo 9/112 (8%) 3yo · G · bClass dropC&DGoing 2/2	2110	9-10	85	—	—	50.9	4/1·4.83	4.1·4.10 Matchbook · -15% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook4.1·4.10Smarkets4·4.00SmarketsSBK3/1·4.00 Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Betfair Exchange3.8·3.80 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook11/4·3.75Betano11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 Midnite11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75 7Bet11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 Bet36511/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 BetTom5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Betfred5/2·3.50 William Hill5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 BetMGM12/5·3.40
5	The Untamed J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 3 · combo 20/157 (13%) 3yo · G · bClass drop	2118	9-09	84	—	—	50.9	14/1·14.16	13·13.00 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook13·13.00Smarkets12.5·12.50SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange8·8.00
2	Wicket Keeper J: Cam Hardie · T: Antony Brittain · draw 6 · combo 2/74 (3%) 4yo · G · bClass drop	24600	9-10	84	—	—	44.5	40/1·39.92	40/1·41.00 Bet365 · +3% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36540/1·41.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 Paddy Power30/1·31.00Betfair Sportsbook30/1·31.00BetWright28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00Smarkets27·27.00BetMGM25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00Matchbook25·25.00Betfair Exchange14·14.00
7	Ruby's Profit J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Tom Ward · draw 7 · combo 0/9 (0%) 4yo · F · bt	464835	9-07	81	—	—	42.5	16/1·16.74	18·18.00 Matchbook · +8% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00Smarkets17.5·17.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00BetWright11/1·12.00 Betfair Exchange9·9.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 25–27 bookmakers per horse with the 29% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes?

The attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes is off at 19:30 on 15 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:30 Southwell (AW)?

6f, Class 4, Flat, 9 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:30 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:30 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Town Queen (score 58.2, best price 5.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:30 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Yordan at a best price of 4.10. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Town Queen.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org