Who won the 13:59 Down Royal on 28 September 2026?
Nellcote (IRE) won the 13:59 Down Royal at SP 4.50. Ridden by Declan McDonogh. Trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien.
13:59 Down Royal
IrelandCoors Fillies Handicap
1m5f · Flat · Good To Yielding · 10 runners · €12,000 · Monday, 28 September 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 7/2·4.50Race report
- 1stNellcote (IRE)AI top pick · 59.8Declan McDonogh·Joseph Patrick O'Brien7/2·4.50SP
- 2ndVanir (IRE)Ben Coen·J. P. Murtagh·beaten .75 lengths9/1·10.00SP
- 3rdAnkara (FR)Shay Wallace·Joseph Patrick O'Brien·beaten .5 lengths25/1·26.00SP
Race time
2m 52.51s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Nellcote (IRE))
“Held up towards the back - improved on the outside to third with 2f left then pushed into the front approaching the final furlong - stayed on strongly to score”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way59.8/100 rating
Nellcote
5.50Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Narlita
Three runners share the top rating heading into this thirteen-furlong contest at Down Royal, yet Narlita is preferred on the basis of a progressive profile that suggests she has more improvement to come than her joint-rated rivals. Navy Waters and Denim And Diamonds are the most obvious dangers, both rated level with our selection and capable of making this competitive, while Ankara, just two pounds below, warrants respect in a field of ten on good ground. The case for Narlita rests on the conviction that she is still on the upgrade, and with that trajectory in mind she is the one to be on.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Nellcote
Declan McDonogh · Joseph Patrick O'Brien · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 59.8 · +4.7 clear of next best (55.1)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong37d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight80strongLast 6: 4-1-2
- Ratings50% weight55averageOR 82
- Trainer20% weight40below averageJoseph Patrick O'Brien: 10/61 winners last 14d (16%)
MarketBest price 5.50 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Down Royal 1m5f
full course data →Sample too small to call at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 0.92
Mid (5–7)
IV 1.31
High (8–10)
IV 0.81
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 33 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 5 3yo · F · ch | 412 | 82 | 59.8 | 7/2·4.50 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 82138 | 84 | 52.6 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 3 | 1 | J: Shay Wallace(7) · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 10 4yo · F · btpFT TP | 89370 | 86 | 50.2 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 4 | 9 | J: R. P. Whelan · T: John S O'Donoghue · draw 7 3yo · F · b | 63212 | 79 | 51.9 | 100/30F·4.33 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 3 4yo · F · btpFT TP | 07847 | 84 | 48.7 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 6 | 3 | J: W. J. Lee · T: W. McCreery · draw 2 5yo · M · gv | 545330 | 84 | 55.1 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 7 | 4 | J: Conor Cusack(7) · T: H Rogers · draw 6 7yo · M · bp | 364050 | 83 | 48.3 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 8 | 8 | J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 9 4yo · F · b | 33222 | 72 | 51.9 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 9 | 5 | J: Keithen Kennedy(5) · T: Mrs J. Harrington · draw 8 4yo · F · chh | 23563 | 78 | 47.4 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 10 | 10 | J: Chris Hayes · T: Noel Meade · draw 4 5yo · M · bb | 75310 | 69 | 42.2 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 13:59 Down Royal?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Nellcote, won the race (AI score 59.8).
What were the placings in the 13:59 Down Royal?
Top finishers: 1. Nellcote (IRE) (4.50), 2. Vanir (IRE) (10.00), 3. Ankara (FR) (26.00).
What was the winning time for the 13:59 Down Royal?
The winning time was 2m 52.51s.
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