Who won the 15:09 Down Royal on 28 September 2026?
Daring Heart (IRE) won the 15:09 Down Royal at SP 1.50. Ridden by G. F. Carroll. Trained by G. M. Lyons.
15:09 Down Royal
IrelandMadrí Excepcional Maiden
7f · Flat · Good To Yielding · 9 runners · €7,200 · Monday, 28 September 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 3rdRace report
- 1stDaring Heart (IRE)G. F. Carroll·G. M. Lyons1/2F·1.50SP
- 2ndMonmouth (IRE)W. M. Lordan·Aidan O'Brien·beaten 2.5 lengths5/1·6.00SP
- 3rdOrellana (IRE)AI top pick · 52.8Siobhan Rutledge·H Rogers·beaten 2.25 lengths9/2·5.50SP
Race time
1m 30.32s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Daring Heart (IRE))
“Sat up behind the front-runner early - still second at halfway - urged forward with two furlongs left before hitting the front inside the final furlong - stayed on strongly to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way52.8/100 rating
Orellana
5.20Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Why the model rates this top
Orellana
Siobhan Rutledge · H Rogers · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 52.8 · +4.6 clear of next best (48.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong7d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Form20% weight54averageLast 6: 0-4-2
- Ratings50% weight50averageOR 75
- Trainer20% weight50small sample (n=5)H Rogers: 1/5 winners last 14d (20%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
MarketBest price 5.20 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 10.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Down Royal 7f
full course data →Sample too small to call at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 0.82
Mid (5–7)
IV 1.36
High (8–10)
IV 0.87
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 37 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | J: G. F. Carroll · T: G. M. Lyons · draw 2 3yo · C · btFT T | 52 | — | 22.4 | 1/2F·1.50 SP |
| 2 | 5 | J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien · draw 1 3yo · C · bbFT B | 703 | 74 | 48.2 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: H Rogers · draw 4 3yo · F · b | 042 | 75 | 52.8 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 4 | 8 | J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 10 3yo · F · b | 3 | — | 26.5 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 5 | 4 | J: Luke McAteer · T: Patrick T Foley · draw 6 3yo · G · b | 7 | — | 9.5 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 6 | 7 | J: James Ryan · T: R K Watson · draw 5 3yo · G · b | 0 | — | 6.5 | 500/1·501.00 SP |
| 7 | 9 | J: Nicola Burns(5) · T: Gerard Keane · draw 7 3yo · F · bt | 0 | — | 7.0 | 500/1·501.00 SP |
| 8 | 6 | J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: Mark Fahey · draw 3 3yo · G · b | 000 | — | 4.5 | 300/1·301.00 SP |
| 9 | 1 | J: Robbie Colgan · T: J A Nash · draw 9 3yo · G · br | 00 | — | 10.0 | 300/1·301.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade · draw 8 3yo · G · b | 038624 | 76 | 42.8 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:09 Down Royal?
No — the AI top pick (Orellana) finished 3.
What were the placings in the 15:09 Down Royal?
Top finishers: 1. Daring Heart (IRE) (1.50), 2. Monmouth (IRE) (6.00), 3. Orellana (IRE) (5.50).
What was the winning time for the 15:09 Down Royal?
The winning time was 1m 30.32s.
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