16:50 Down Royal

Ireland

Pravha Handicap (Div II)

1m3f · Flat · Good To Yielding · 14 runners · €6,000 · Monday, 28 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 3rd

1st
Connecteo (IRE)
Ben Coen·A Oliver
4/1·5.00
SP
2nd
Shay's Dream (IRE)
J M Sheridan·Joseph Patrick O'Brien·beaten 3.75 lengths
11/1·12.00
SP
3rd
Flagstone Lady (IRE)AI top pick · 45.3
Reese Holohan·M D O'Callaghan·beaten .75 lengths
3/1F·4.00
SP

Race time

2m 25.73s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Connecteo (IRE))

“Held up towards back early - moved into contention entering straight - pushed to front over 1f out and stayed on strongly to the line”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way45.3/100 rating

Flagstone Lady

5.10Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Trishuli River

Trishuli River heads this fourteen-runner field at Down Royal on good ground over eleven furlongs, rated narrowly ahead of Ballaghkeen and a further pound clear of Connecteo, and the profile suggests a horse capable of translating that superiority into victory on the day. Ballaghkeen and Connecteo represent the most credible dangers, with Big Bill also worth monitoring if the pace develops favourably, but none of the trio can match Trishuli River on current form. With conditions expected to suit and confidence high in the selection's ability to see out this trip, the verdict points firmly to Trishuli River.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Flagstone Lady

Reese Holohan(7) · M D O'Callaghan · 3yo

Top-rated of 15

score 45.3 · +0.2 clear of next best (45.2)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
24d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
47below average
Last 6: 0-6-0-8-3-1
Ratings50% weight
40below average
OR 60 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
30weak
M D O'Callaghan: 3/26 winners last 14d (12%)

MarketBest price 5.10 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Down Royal 1m3f

full course data →

Sample too small to call at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 0.52

Mid (6–10)

IV 0.98

High (11–15)

IV 1.52

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 27 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	4	Connecteo J: Ben Coen · T: A Oliver · draw 13 3yo · G · cht	247620	9-12	58	—	—	36.8	4/1·5.00 SP
2	3	Shay's Dream J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 1 3yo · G · ch	00890	9-13	59	—	—	38.4	11/1·12.00 SP
3	1	Flagstone Lady J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 10 3yo · F · g	060831	10-00	60	—	—	45.3	3/1F·4.00 SP
4	10	Thegooseiscooked J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Gerard Keane · draw 5 9yo · M · bt	00304	9-04	44	—	—	30.1	22/1·23.00 SP
5	5	Big Bill J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: Aidan Melia · draw 14 3yo · G · b	0760	9-10	56	—	—	25.0	18/1·19.00 SP
6	14	Curious Jane J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Ciaran Murphy · draw 15 3yo · F · b	009559	8-08	39	—	—	33.1	18/1·19.00 SP
7	6	Sweetie Too J: Rory Cleary · T: Brendan W Duke · draw 3 3yo · F · ch	08450	9-08	54	—	—	45.2	14/1·15.00 SP
8	9	Augusta Rock J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 4 3yo · G · chtv	88525	9-04	50	—	—	42.4	7/2·4.50 SP
9	11	Folk Warrior J: W. J. Lee · T: J A Nash · draw 11 4yo · G · chpFT P	54756	9-01	41	—	—	27.3	13/2·7.50 SP
10	13	Kartayaz J: Zoe McMullan(10) · T: G A Kingston · draw 12 9yo · G · b	08800	9-00	35	—	—	18.8	125/1·126.00 SP
11	8	Trishuli River J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Shane Crawley · draw 7 6yo · M · btp	300806	9-05	45	—	—	24.1	11/1·12.00 SP
12	2	Ballaghkeen J: R. P. Whelan · T: J S Bolger · draw 2 3yo · F · bt	67006	9-13	59	—	—	31.7	17/2·9.50 SP
13	12	Haeret In Pectore J: Robbie Colgan · T: A. J. Martin · draw 9 5yo · G · bt	55060	9-00	33	—	—	23.3	50/1·51.00 SP
14	7	Strike De Vega J: G. F. Carroll · T: A Oliver · draw 8 3yo · C · chbFT B	06000	9-07	53	—	—	32.2	80/1·81.00 SP
—	—	Cleopatra's Needle J: · T: H Rogers · draw 6 8yo · M · chh	02290	9-07	47	—	—	39.7	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:50 Down Royal on 28 September 2026?

Connecteo (IRE) won the 16:50 Down Royal at SP 5.00. Ridden by Ben Coen. Trained by A Oliver.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:50 Down Royal?

No — the AI top pick (Flagstone Lady) finished 3.

What were the placings in the 16:50 Down Royal?

Top finishers: 1. Connecteo (IRE) (5.00), 2. Shay's Dream (IRE) (12.00), 3. Flagstone Lady (IRE) (4.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:50 Down Royal?

The winning time was 2m 25.73s.

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