16:35 Redcar

Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-mile Series Final Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 2 · Good · 14 runners · £23,193 · Saturday, 3 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (14 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Welbury

No. 3 · score 55.6 · +0.4 clear of next best · best 5/1·6.00

Best value vs consensus

Nyman

16.5·16.50 Betfair Exchange · +6% vs fair (consensus 15.58)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way55.6/100 rating

Welbury

6.00Smarkets

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: TheoryofeverythingDiffers from our pick

Theoryofeverything heads our ratings on 95, three pounds ahead of Classic Encounter, and that narrow edge is enough to make him the one to beat in this 14-runner Class 2 over a mile on good ground. Classic Encounter is the chief danger on 92, with Welbury on 89 and Double Parked on 86 also firmly in the picture, so this is no gimme. Still, Theoryofeverything's rating gives him the strongest overall profile in the line-up, and he gets the vote. Theoryofeverything is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Welbury

Oisin Orr · Edward Bethell · 3yo

Top-rated of 14

score 55.6 · +0.4 clear of next best (55.2)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
43d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
60average
Last 6: 2-2-4-1-1-0
Ratings50% weight
60average
OR 90 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
25weak
Edward Bethell: 3/30 winners last 14d (10%)

MarketBest price 6.00 (Smarkets) · 2nd in the market of 14.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
5Double Parked 8Poet's Dawn
Prominent(4)
1Theoryofeverything 2Classic Encounter 6Nyman 13Law of Design
Mid-division(1)
4Rajapour
Hold-up / closers(7)
3Welbury 7Wild Dahlia 9Barley 10Harswell Ruby 11Up The Jazz 12Shadow Run 14Mount King

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Redcar 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 1.06

Mid (6–10)

IV 0.98

High (11–14)

IV 0.95

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 127 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	WelburyPick J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell · draw 6 · combo 11/46 (24%) 3yo · G · grpC&DGoing 1/2	224110	9-10	90	—	—	55.6	6/1·7.14	6·6.00 Smarkets · -16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets6·6.00Betfair Exchange6·6.00Matchbook6·6.00BetTom9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Midnite9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00
9	Barley J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 13 · combo 11/171 (6%) 7yo · G · bpDGoing 1/4	244013	8-08	71	—	—	55.2	22/1·22.07	38·38.00 Matchbook · +72% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook38·38.00Betfair Exchange36·36.00Smarkets36·36.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00William Hill16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00
2	Classic Encounter J: Pat Cosgrave · T: George Boughey · draw 7 · combo 3/23 (13%) 5yo · G · bC&D	761423	9-11	88	—	—	54.1	15/2·8.44	8·8.00 Betfair Exchange · -5% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8·8.00Matchbook8·8.00Smarkets7.8·7.80Unibet6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Betano11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Coral11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00
7	Wild Dahlia J: Jason Hart · T: William Haggas · draw 1 · combo 2/9 (22%) 3yo · F · bOnly runner	12364	8-09	75	—	—	53.9	6/1·7.14	7.4·7.40 Matchbook · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook7.4·7.40Smarkets7.4·7.40Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Bet3659/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Betfred4/1·5.00
5	Double Parked J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 11 · combo 39/321 (12%) 4yo · G · btGoing 1/3	031506	9-04	81	—	—	53.8	11/2·6.49	9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet · -15% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Quinn Bet9/2·5.50Matchbook5.4·5.40Betfair Exchange5.4·5.40Smarkets5.4·5.40Betano4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Bet3654/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00
1	Theoryofeverything J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: David O'Meara · draw 10 · combo 8/53 (15%) 6yo · G · grtpDGoing 1/4	458175	9-12	89	—	—	52.2	11/1·12.33	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Smarkets11.5·11.50Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 7Bet17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50Hollywood Bets17/2·9.50Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Coral17/2·9.50 Bet36517/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50William Hill17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Bet Victor17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50
4	Rajapour J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 14 · combo 9/102 (9%) 6yo · G · chtpC&DGoing 1/3Only ride	1F5172	9-08	85	—	—	51.1	14/1·14.28	15·15.00 Betfair Exchange · +5% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange15·15.00Matchbook15·15.00Smarkets14.5·14.50SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 10 Bet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Boyle Sports10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Betfred9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00
14	Mount King J: Amie Waugh(3) · T: Tim Easterby · draw 12 · combo 1/9 (11%) 6yo · G · chtbOn last winning markDOnly pairing	129465	8-02	62	—	—	48.2	50/1·53.23	90·90.00 Matchbook · +69% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook90·90.00Smarkets85·85.00SmarketsSBK80/1·81.00 Betfair Exchange75·75.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Star Sports40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00
6	Nyman J: Joanna Mason · T: Roger Fell · draw 8 · combo 5/35 (14%) 4yo · G · bOnly pairing	643915	8-10	73	—	—	47.8	14/1·15.58	16.5·16.50 Betfair Exchange · +6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange16.5·16.50Matchbook16.5·16.50Smarkets16·16.00SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00William Hill11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Star Sports11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Paddy Power11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00
8	Poet's Dawn J: William Pyle · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 11yo · G · chpGoing 3/8Only pairing	117930	8-08	71	—	—	47.5	50/1·53.23	75·75.00 Matchbook · +41% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook75·75.00Betfair Exchange70·70.00Smarkets70·70.00SmarketsSBK66/1·67.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00BetMGM40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Betfred33/1·34.00
11	Up The Jazz J: Cam Hardie · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 9 · combo 1/39 (3%) 5yo · G · bDGoing 1/5Only pairing	127525	8-05	68	—	—	46.1	66/1·66.22	65·65.00 Matchbook · -2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook65·65.00Betfair Exchange60·60.00Smarkets55·55.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Star Sports50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00
13	Law of Design J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: Ian Williams · draw 5 4yo · G · chvOnly pairing	955523	8-02	63	—	—	45.8	11/1·11.69	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Betfair Exchange11·11.00Smarkets10.5·10.50SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Bet36517/2·9.50 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00SportingIndex8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.007Bet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50
10	Harswell Ruby J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Roger Fell · draw 3 4yo · F · bbOnly pairing	524404	8-06	69	—	—	44.3	28/1·29.86	24·24.00 Matchbook · -20% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook24·24.00Smarkets23·23.00Betfair Exchange23·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.007Bet20/1·21.00 10 Bet20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00
12	Shadow Run J: James Sullivan · T: Scott Dixon · draw 2 3yo · G · bOnly runner	402569	8-02	67	—	—	37.4	66/1·66.22	140·140.00 Matchbook · +111% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook140·140.00Betfair Exchange120·120.00Smarkets110·110.00SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 30% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-mile Series Final Handicap Stakes?

The Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-mile Series Final Handicap Stakes is off at 16:35 on 3 October 2026 at Redcar (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:35 Redcar?

1m, Class 2, Flat, 14 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:35 Redcar?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:35 Redcar?

The AI top-rated runner is Welbury (score 55.6, best price 6.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:35 Redcar?

The market favourite is Double Parked at a best price of 5.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Welbury.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org