16:10 Ascot

Off in 10m

Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap Stakes

5f · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Firm · 12 runners · £23,193 · Saturday, 3 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (13 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Maelstrom

No. 11 · score 59.3 · +1.8 clear of next best · best 9/1·10.50

Best value vs consensus

Atticum

36·36.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair (consensus 30.02)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way59.3/100 rating

Maelstrom

10.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: AdrestiaDiffers from our pick

Adrestia gets the nod in this 13-runner Ascot sprint, with a progressive profile that makes her the one to side with over Havana Hurricane, who is only three pounds better on our figures. She sits second in our ratings on 100, so she is firmly in the mix on pure ability, and her upward curve is what tips the balance on good to firm ground over the minimum trip. Havana Hurricane is the obvious danger as the top-rated runner, while Gold Star Hero and Rosario also merit respect and could make this a tight finish. Adrestia is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Maelstrom

Jack Dace(5) · Stuart Williams · 4yo

Top-rated of 13

score 59.3 · +1.8 clear of next best (57.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
20d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
56average
Last 6: 8-5-1-1-7
Ratings50% weight
56average
OR 84
Trainer20% weight
50average
Stuart Williams: 5/25 winners last 14d (20%)

MarketBest price 10.50 (Matchbook) · 3rd in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 4 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Front-runners(4)
5Ancient State 6Regal Envoy 7Eternal Sunshine 13Rhythm N Hooves
Prominent(3)
2Gold Star Hero 9Glamorous Breeze 12Atticum
Mid-division(1)
Bone Marra
Hold-up / closers(4)
1Adrestia 8Rosario 11Maelstrom 14Fantasy Master
Unknown(1)
4Havana Hurricane

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ascot 5f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.19).

Low (1–5)

IV 1.07

Mid (6–10)

IV 0.72

High (11–14)

IV 1.19

Today: Ancient State (draw 12) and Havana Hurricane (draw 11) get the bias; Gold Star Hero (draw 6) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 107 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
11	MaelstromPick J: Jack Dace(5) · T: Stuart Williams · draw 1 4yo · G · grtC&DGoing 1/3Only ride	85117	9-00	84	—	—	59.3	9/1·10.44	10.5·10.50 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook10.5·10.50Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50Smarkets10.5·10.50SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Unibet15/2·8.50 Bet36515/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00BetTom13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50
2	Gold Star Hero J: Billy Loughnane · T: Michael Bell · draw 6 · combo 1/9 (11%) 4yo · G · chpOnly runner	150253	9-11	95	—	—	57.5	6/1·7.18	6.2·6.20 Smarkets · -14% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets6.2·6.20Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20Matchbook6.2·6.20Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50William Hill9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Star Sports9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 Bet3654/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00
5	Ancient State J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: Adam Kirby · draw 12 · combo 1/5 (20%) 4yo · G · btpFT TPDGoing 1/5Only rideOnly runner	155214	9-06	90	—	—	56.2	4/1·5.22	5·5.00 Betfair Exchange · -4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5·5.00Smarkets4.9·4.90Matchbook4.9·4.90SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Unibet10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00 William Hill3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Coral3/1·4.00 7Bet3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00
—	Bone Marra J: Libby Swallow(7) · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 2 · combo 0/8 (0%) 3yo · G · btOnly ride	201233	9-01	85	—	—	53.7	33/1·33.93	44·44.00 Betfair Exchange · +30% vs fair Compare 20 books ▾ Betfair Exchange44·44.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00Matchbook5.2·5.20Unibet0.0
8	Rosario J: Owen Lewis(5) · T: Roger Teal · draw 9 · combo 3/31 (10%) 5yo · G · chpDOnly rideOnly runner	854710	9-04	88	—	—	53.6	12/1·13.05	12·12.00 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook12·12.00Smarkets12·12.00Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Star Sports9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Paddy Power17/2·9.50 7Bet17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Unibet17/2·9.50 BetTom17/2·9.50
1	Adrestia J: Harry Davies · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 8 · combo 5/37 (14%) 4yo · F · btpOnly runner	78002	9-12	96	—	—	50.7	11/1·12.40	12·12.00 Betfair Exchange · -3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange12·12.00Matchbook12·12.00Smarkets12·12.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Bet36517/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 Bet Victor17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50Hollywood Bets17/2·9.50Star Sports17/2·9.50 7Bet17/2·9.50 Coral17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Paddy Power8/1·9.00
7	Eternal Sunshine J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 5 · combo 14/177 (8%) 6yo · M · bpDOnly rideOnly runner	602102	9-04	88	—	—	49.0	11/1·11.75	11.5·11.50 Betfair Exchange · -2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Smarkets11.5·11.50SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00Matchbook11·11.00Midnite17/2·9.50 Bet36517/2·9.50 Betfred8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00Star Sports8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 7Bet15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 10 Bet15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50 Betano7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00
4	Havana Hurricane J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Eve Johnson Houghton · draw 11 · combo 13/53 (25%) 3yo · G · bOnly pairing	303989	9-08	92	—	—	48.5	12/1·13.05	12.5·12.50 Smarkets · -4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets12.5·12.50Betfair Exchange12.5·12.50Matchbook12·12.00Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Bet36510/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Paddy Power17/2·9.50
14	Fantasy Master J: Laura Pearson · T: Robert Cowell · draw 14 8yo · G · chpOnly ride	38232	8-04	74	—	—	47.3	22/1·22.19	18.5·18.50 Matchbook · -17% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook18.5·18.50Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50Smarkets18·18.00Star Sports16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 10 Bet14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Betfred12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00
6	Regal Envoy J: Taylor Fisher · T: William Knight · draw 7 · combo 4/31 (13%) 7yo · G · btpDOnly rideOnly runner	178052	9-05	89	—	—	47.1	25/1·27.41	30·30.00 Betfair Exchange · +10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange30·30.00Matchbook30·30.00Smarkets29·29.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00Midnite20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 10 Bet20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Paddy Power18/1·19.00
9	Glamorous Breeze J: Gina Mangan · T: Christopher Mason · draw 3 · combo 9/52 (17%) 8yo · M · bp	325365	9-03	87	—	—	46.9	18/1·19.58	20·20.00 Betfair Exchange · +2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange20·20.00Matchbook20·20.00Smarkets19.5·19.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 10 Bet14/1·15.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00
12	Atticum J: George Wood · T: Robert Cowell · draw 4 3yo · C · bOnly pairing	15533	8-13	83	—	—	44.7	28/1·30.02	36·36.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook36·36.00Betfair Exchange34·34.00Smarkets34·34.00Betfred25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Paddy Power22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Unibet22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00
13	Rhythm N Hooves J: Barry McHugh · T: Robert Cowell · draw 10 6yo · G · bvDGoing 1/5Only pairing	038818	8-12	82	—	—	44.5	16/1·16.97	17·17.00 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook17·17.00Smarkets16.5·16.50Betfair Exchange16·16.00 SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Unibet12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00
—	All Ways GlamorousNon-runner J: Gina Mangan · T: Christopher Mason · draw 13 · combo 9/52 (17%) 5yo · G · b	391144	9-11	95	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 19–29 bookmakers per horse with the 30% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap Stakes?

The Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap Stakes is off at 16:10 on 3 October 2026 at Ascot (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:10 Ascot?

5f, Class 2, Flat, 12 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:10 Ascot?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:10 Ascot?

The AI top-rated runner is Maelstrom (score 59.3, best price 10.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:10 Ascot?

The market favourite is Ancient State at a best price of 5.00. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Maelstrom.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org