16:45 Southwell (AW)

Bettingsites.co.uk Compare Before You Bet Handicap Stakes

2m½f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 6 runners · £4,397 · Saturday, 3 October 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Saxophonic

No. 6 · score 49.6 · +1.6 clear of next best · best 5/2·3.60

Best value vs consensus

League of Justice

7.6·7.60 Matchbook · +9% vs fair (consensus 6.95)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Saxophonic advised 9/4·3.25 (Matchbook), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.11.82 score

Tinkety Tonk

6.20Matchbook

segment +9.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 5

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Kuredu KingDiffers from our pick

Kuredu King looks the one to beat at Southwell, with our rating of 86 putting him 11 lb clear of Captain Cairney on 75, a gap that should count for plenty in a modest six-runner Class 5 over two miles. Captain Cairney is the chief danger, while Betelgeuse on 73 and League of Justice on 68 would need to improve to make it close. Saxophonic and Tinkety Tonk look to have a lot to find on our figures. Kuredu King gets the nod.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Saxophonic

Sean Dylan Bowen · David Simcock · 3yo

Top-rated of 6

score 49.6 · +1.6 clear of next best (48.0)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
18d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
55average
Last 6: 3-8-6-4-4-1
Trainer20% weight
50small sample (n=5)
David Simcock: 1/5 winners last 14d (20%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Ratings50% weight
37below average
OR 56

MarketBest price 3.60 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 6.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
3Captain Cairney
Prominent(1)
6Saxophonic
Mid-division(1)
4League of Justice
Hold-up / closers(3)
1Kuredu King 2Betelgeuse 5Tinkety Tonk

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 2m½f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–2)

IV 0.84

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.16

High (5–6)

IV 1.03

Today: League of Justice (draw 4) and Tinkety Tonk (draw 3) get the bias; Saxophonic (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 117 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
6	SaxophonicPick J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: David Simcock · draw 1 3yo · G · bGoing 1/2Only pairing	386441	8-04	56	—	—	49.6	5/2·3.48	3.6·3.60 Matchbook · +4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook3.6·3.60Smarkets3.5·3.50Betfair Exchange3.5·3.50 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25Virgin Bet2/1·3.00Star Sports2/1·3.00 BetMGM2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 7Bet2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00Hollywood Bets2/1·3.00LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00 William Hill15/8·2.88 Boyle Sports15/8·2.88 Bet Victor15/8·2.88 Betano15/8·2.88 10 Bet15/8·2.88 BetTom15/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.88 Midnite7/4·2.75 Coral13/8·2.63
3	Captain Cairney J: Ryan Kavanagh(3) · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick · draw 2 · combo 1/11 (9%) 3yo · G · chpClass dropC	725112	9-03	69	—	—	48.0	5/2·3.48	9/4·3.25 Bet365 · -6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Bet3659/4·3.25 Betfair Exchange3.25·3.25Matchbook3.25·3.25Smarkets3.25·3.25Midnite9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK11/5·3.20 Unibet85/40·3.13 10 Bet2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00BetWright2/1·3.00 Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 BetTom2/1·3.00 7Bet2/1·3.00 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00Hollywood Bets2/1·3.00Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 Bet Victor15/8·2.88 Betano15/8·2.88 Paddy Power15/8·2.88Betfair Sportsbook15/8·2.88Coral13/8·2.63
1	Kuredu King J: Dougie Costello · T: Donald McCain · draw 5 4yo · G · chpClass dropOnly runner	43647	10-02	74	—	—	45.1	18/1·19.70	21·21.00 Matchbook · +7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook21·21.00Smarkets20·20.00Betfair Exchange19·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.0010 Bet16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00
4	League of Justice J: Billy Garritty · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 4 3yo · G · bOnly runner	64377	9-03	69	—	—	42.2	6/1·6.95	7.6·7.60 Matchbook · +9% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook7.6·7.60Smarkets7.2·7.20SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Betfair Exchange7·7.00 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 William Hill5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00BetWright5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50BetTom9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00
5	Tinkety Tonkv1.1 J: Rob Hornby · T: Hughie Morrison · draw 3 · combo 2/24 (8%) 3yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	056	8-10	62	—	—	40.2	5/1·5.79	5.7·5.70 Betfair Exchange · -2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50Matchbook5.5·5.5010 Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.507Bet9/2·5.50Smarkets5.4·5.40William Hill4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Star Sports4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Betfred7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33
2	Betelgeuse J: Darragh Keenan · T: S. P. C. Woods · draw 6 4yo · G · chpClass dropOnly runner	532536	9-06	64	—	—	40.1	16/1·17.38	16/1·17.00 Star Sports · -2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Star Sports16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00Matchbook16.5·16.50Smarkets16·16.00SportingIndex14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 10 Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Betfair Exchange15·15.00 SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 Betfred12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Coral11/1·12.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 16% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Bettingsites.co.uk Compare Before You Bet Handicap Stakes?

The Bettingsites.co.uk Compare Before You Bet Handicap Stakes is off at 16:45 on 3 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

2m½f, Class 5, Flat, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Saxophonic (score 49.6, best price 3.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Captain Cairney at a best price of 3.25. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Saxophonic.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org