18:30 Southwell (AW)

Bettingsites.co.uk New Customer Offers Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

7f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 10 runners · £5,400 · Saturday, 3 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Fully Stocked

No. 2 · score 46.9 · +13.5 clear of next best · best 9/2·5.50

Best value vs consensus

Pippy Boy

32·32.00 Matchbook · +15% vs fair (consensus 27.80)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Fully Stocked advised 5/1·5.90 (Matchbook), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way46.9/100 rating

Fully Stocked

5.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Fully Stocked

Joe Leavy · Jack Morland · 2yo

Top-rated of 10

score 46.9 · +13.5 clear of next best (33.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
23d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
58average
Last 6: 2-4-3
Ratings50% weight
51average
OR 76 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
0small sample (n=5)
Jack Morland: 0/5 winners last 14d (0%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard

MarketBest price 5.50 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 10.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(2)
4Notimetotakeoff 7Dontworryaboutme
Mid-division(2)
1Ebt's Warrior 5Pippy Boy
Hold-up / closers(1)
8Maliqui
Unknown(5)
2Fully Stocked 3Jaipur Prince 6Son Of Vega 9Penselwood 10Without Diamond

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.96

Mid (5–7)

IV 1.04

High (8–10)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Fully StockedPick J: Joe Leavy · T: Jack Morland · draw 7 2yo · G · bOnly runner	243	9-07	76	—	—	46.9	5/1·6.04	5.5·5.50 Matchbook · -9% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook5.5·5.50SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Betfair Exchange5.4·5.40Smarkets5.4·5.40Bet3654/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00BetWright4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Paddy Power7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 BetMGM10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33
8	Maliqui J: Rob Hornby · T: Charlie Fellowes · draw 9 2yo · G · bOnly runner	52	9-04	—	—	—	33.4	6/1·7.25	6.6·6.60 Smarkets · -9% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets6.6·6.60Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60Matchbook6.6·6.60Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Bet36511/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00BetTom5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Betano4/1·5.00
6	Son Of Vega J: Dylan Hogan · T: David Simcock · draw 6 2yo · C · chOnly pairing	—	9-07	—	—	—	25.0	17/2·9.67	8.6·8.60 Matchbook · -11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook8.6·8.60Bet36515/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Betfair Exchange8·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00Smarkets7.8·7.807Bet13/2·7.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Betano6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00
7	Dontworryaboutme J: Dougie Costello · T: Charles Hills · draw 3 2yo · C · b	72	9-04	—	—	—	23.9	11/8·2.42	2.34·2.34 Betfair Exchange · -3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange2.34·2.34Matchbook2.34·2.34Smarkets2.32·2.32SmarketsSBK5/4·2.25 SportingIndex11/10·2.10 Spreadex11/10·2.10 Bet36511/10·2.10 Unibet11/10·2.10 William Hill11/10·2.10 Coralevn·2.00 BetTomEvens·2.00 Quinn BetEvens·2.00 10 Betevn·2.00Virgin BetEvens·2.00LiveScore BetEvens·2.00 Star Sportsevn·2.00 BetMGMevn·2.00 Ladbrokesevn·2.00 Midniteevn·2.00Betfair Sportsbook1/1·2.00Paddy Power1/1·2.00Hollywood Bets1/1·2.00BetWright10/11·1.91 Dragon Bet10/11·1.91 7Bet10/11·1.91 Betano10/11·1.91 Bet Victor5/6·1.83 Boyle Sports5/6·1.83 Betfred5/6·1.83
5	Pippy Boy J: Darragh Keenan · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 8 · combo 1/17 (6%) 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	9	9-07	—	—	—	23.2	28/1·27.80	32·32.00 Matchbook · +15% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook32·32.00Smarkets29·29.00Betfair Exchange27·27.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Bet36522/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Spreadex22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Paddy Power22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 10 Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00
9	Penselwood J: Jack Gilligan · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt · draw 1 · combo 3/14 (21%) 2yo · G · b	—	9-04	—	—	—	23.0	18/1·18.13	19.5·19.50 Matchbook · +8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook19.5·19.50Betfair Exchange19·19.00Smarkets19·19.00Coral16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 10 Bet14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Midnite14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Star Sports14/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00
4	Notimetotakeoff J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 5 · combo 1/19 (5%) 2yo · C · chOnly pairing	03	9-07	—	—	—	21.5	28/1·31.42	40·40.00 Matchbook · +27% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook40·40.00Smarkets40·40.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange28·28.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Unibet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00William Hill25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00
10	Without Diamond J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Joey Ramsden · draw 4 · combo 0/8 (0%) 2yo · G · bOnly runner	8	9-04	—	—	—	21.5	100/1·122.07	125/1·126.00 Midnite · +3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Midnite125/1·126.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00 Paddy Power100/1·101.00 Star Sports100/1·101.00 BetWright100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Betfred100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports100/1·101.00Hollywood Bets100/1·101.00Unibet100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00 10 Bet100/1·101.00 William Hill100/1·101.00Smarkets85·85.00LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.007Bet80/1·81.00 SmarketsSBK80/1·81.00 Bet36580/1·81.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00Matchbook60·60.00Betfair Exchange32·32.00
1	Ebt's Warrior J: Ryan Kavanagh(3) · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick · draw 10 · combo 1/11 (9%) 2yo · C · btFT TClass drop	35	9-07	—	—	—	19.0	28/1·27.80	28·28.00 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook28·28.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00Smarkets26·26.00Coral25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange25·25.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00William Hill22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 Paddy Power22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00
3	Jaipur Prince J: William Carson · T: Adam Kirby · draw 2 · combo 1/13 (8%) 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	5	9-07	—	—	—	19.0	80/1·80.97	90·90.00 Matchbook · +11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook90·90.00Bet36580/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00Smarkets70·70.0010 Bet66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00BetTom66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 SmarketsSBK66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange21·21.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 21% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Bettingsites.co.uk New Customer Offers Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)?

The Bettingsites.co.uk New Customer Offers Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race) is off at 18:30 on 3 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 18:30 Southwell (AW)?

7f, Class 4, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 18:30 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 18:30 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Fully Stocked (score 46.9, best price 5.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 18:30 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Dontworryaboutme at a best price of 2.34. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Fully Stocked.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org