19:00 Southwell (AW)

Bettingsites.co.uk Free Bet Offers Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

7f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 11 runners · £5,400 · Saturday, 3 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (11 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Hozam

No. 6 · score 59.8 · +9.2 clear of next best · best 11/1·12.50

Best value vs consensus

Big Money

14.5·14.50 Matchbook · +8% vs fair (consensus 13.48)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Hozam advised 12/1·13.00 (Matchbook), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.12.95 score

Hozam

12.50Matchbook

segment +6.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 4

Each-way59.8/100 rating

Hozam

12.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Hozam

Joe Leavy · Kevin & Lauren Frost · 3yo

Top-rated of 11

score 59.8 · +9.2 clear of next best (50.6)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
28d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
75strong
Last 6: 3-2-2
Ratings50% weight
53average
OR 79
Trainer20% weight
43below average
Kevin & Lauren Frost: 2/12 winners last 14d (17%)

MarketBest price 12.50 (Matchbook) · 3rd in the market of 11.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
6Hozam 9Talking Bear
Prominent(1)
1Cloud Forest
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
10Ze Gucci Poochie
Unknown(7)
2Imperial Ballet 3Secret Message 4All You Can Be 5Big Money 7Manjaros Express 8Skewsby 11Pseudonym

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.96

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.04

High (9–11)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
6	HozamPickv1.1 J: Joe Leavy · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost · draw 4 3yo · G · bOnly runner	322	9-05	79	—	—	59.8	11/1·12.25	12.5·12.50 Matchbook · +2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook12.5·12.50SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00Smarkets12·12.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Betfair Exchange11·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Star Sports9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Betfred9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 William Hill17/2·9.50 Bet36517/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 BetTom17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00
1	Cloud Forest J: William Carson · T: Saeed bin Suroor · draw 1 4yo · G · bpFT POnly runner	6222	9-07	83	—	—	50.6	11/8·2.34	2.04·2.04 Matchbook · -13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook2.04·2.04Betfair Exchange2.02·2.02Smarkets2.02·2.02Quinn BetEvens·2.00 Star Sports1/1·2.00 Betfred1/1·2.00 William Hillevn·2.00 Ladbrokesevn·2.00 LiveScore BetEvens·2.00 UnibetEvens·2.00Virgin BetEvens·2.00BetTomEvens·2.00 Boyle Sportsevn·2.00 Coralevn·2.00 Dragon Bet10/11·1.91 10 Bet10/11·1.91 BetWright10/11·1.91Hollywood Bets10/11·1.91SportingIndex10/11·1.91 Spreadex10/11·1.91 7Bet10/11·1.91 Bet36510/11·1.91 Midnite10/11·1.91Betfair Sportsbook10/11·1.91Paddy Power10/11·1.91 Bet Victor5/6·1.83 BetMGM5/6·1.83 SmarketsSBK5/6·1.83 Betano5/6·1.83
8	Skewsby J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 6 · combo 11/126 (9%) 3yo · G · bOnly runner	732	9-05	74	—	—	44.0	33/1·35.54	60·60.00 Matchbook · +69% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook60·60.00Smarkets55·55.00Betfair Exchange48·48.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00BetTom28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Bet36525/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00BetWright25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00
2	Imperial Ballet J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding · draw 7 · combo 5/49 (10%) 3yo · F · b	1	9-07	—	—	—	28.5	3/1·3.98	3.6·3.60 Matchbook · -10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook3.6·3.60Smarkets3.6·3.60Betfair Exchange3.55·3.55 SmarketsSBK5/2·3.50 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25Hollywood Bets9/4·3.25Coral9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 BetMGM2/1·3.00 BetWright2/1·3.00 10 Bet2/1·3.00 7Bet2/1·3.00 Midnite2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00 Bet Victor7/4·2.75 Betano7/4·2.75
5	Big Money J: Andrew Mullen · T: Michael Appleby · draw 3 · combo 0/6 (0%) 3yo · G · b	4	9-05	—	—	—	24.5	12/1·13.48	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · +8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange13.5·13.50Smarkets13.5·13.50SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Betfred10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.0010 Bet10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Bet Victor17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50
9	Talking Bear J: Jonny Peate · T: Richard Phillips · draw 9 · combo 1/9 (11%) 3yo · G · grOnly runner	35	9-05	—	—	—	18.0	50/1·50.24	120·120.00 Matchbook · +139% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook120·120.00Smarkets85·85.00SmarketsSBK80/1·81.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00BetWright40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Betfair Exchange38·38.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00
7	Manjaros Express J: Alice Bond(5) · T: Martin Dunne · draw 2 · combo 1/9 (11%) 3yo · G · bOnly ride	—	9-05	—	—	—	15.0	100/1·123.77	1000·1000.00 Betfair Exchange · +708% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange1000·1000.00Matchbook1000·1000.00Smarkets500·500.00SmarketsSBK400/1·401.00 Midnite125/1·126.00 Betfred100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00 Paddy Power100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00 BetMGM100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports100/1·101.00 Star Sports100/1·101.00 LiveScore Bet100/1·101.00Virgin Bet100/1·101.00William Hill100/1·101.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 10 Bet100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00Hollywood Bets100/1·101.00Unibet100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook90/1·91.00Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 BetWright80/1·81.00 7Bet80/1·81.00 Betano66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00
11	Pseudonym J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 5 · combo 2/25 (8%) 3yo · F · bClass dropOnly runner	96	9-00	—	—	—	14.1	66/1·62.50	300·300.00 Smarkets · +380% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets300·300.00Matchbook150·150.00SmarketsSBK100/1·101.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange38·38.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00
4	All You Can Be J: Dougie Costello · T: Charles Hills · draw 11 3yo · G · bhFT H	6	9-05	—	—	—	11.0	11/1·12.25	12.5·12.50 Matchbook · +2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook12.5·12.50Betfair Exchange12·12.00Smarkets12·12.00SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Bet3659/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Star Sports9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 BetTom17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 7Bet17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Unibet17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00
3	Secret Message J: Darragh Keenan · T: Nick Littmoden · draw 8 4yo · G · brtFT TOnly runner	0	9-07	—	—	—	10.0	250/1·246.31	1000·1000.00 Betfair Exchange · +306% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange1000·1000.00Matchbook990·990.00Smarkets500·500.00SmarketsSBK400/1·401.00 Midnite250/1·251.00 Boyle Sports200/1·201.00 Coral200/1·201.00 Ladbrokes200/1·201.00 Quinn Bet200/1·201.00 Star Sports200/1·201.00Betfair Sportsbook200/1·201.00Paddy Power200/1·201.00 BetTom200/1·201.00 Unibet200/1·201.00Virgin Bet200/1·201.00Bet365200/1·201.00 William Hill200/1·201.00 LiveScore Bet200/1·201.00 10 Bet200/1·201.00 Betfred150/1·151.00Hollywood Bets150/1·151.00BetMGM125/1·126.00 BetWright125/1·126.00 Bet Victor125/1·126.00 Dragon Bet125/1·126.00 Betano125/1·126.00 7Bet100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00
10	Ze Gucci Poochie J: Muhammet Talha Ertal(7) · T: Martin Dunne · draw 10 3yo · G · chOnly ride	09	9-05	—	—	—	9.3	100/1·123.77	1000·1000.00 Betfair Exchange · +708% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange1000·1000.00Matchbook1000·1000.00Smarkets500·500.00SmarketsSBK400/1·401.00 Midnite125/1·126.00 10 Bet100/1·101.00 LiveScore Bet100/1·101.00Virgin Bet100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00Hollywood Bets100/1·101.00Betfred100/1·101.00 Unibet100/1·101.00 BetMGM100/1·101.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 William Hill100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00 Star Sports100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 BetWright80/1·81.00 7Bet80/1·81.00 Betano66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 23% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Bettingsites.co.uk Free Bet Offers Novice Stakes (gbb Race)?

The Bettingsites.co.uk Free Bet Offers Novice Stakes (gbb Race) is off at 19:00 on 3 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:00 Southwell (AW)?

7f, Class 4, Flat, 11 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:00 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:00 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Hozam (score 59.8, best price 12.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:00 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Cloud Forest at a best price of 2.04. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Hozam.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org