18:30 Newcastle (AW)

Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)

6f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 12 runners · £3,978 · Monday, 12 October 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 15/2·8.50

1st
Juan Les Pins (GB)AI top pick · 52.1
Mason Paetel·Michael Appleby
15/2·8.50
SP
2nd
Brazen Idol (GB)
Saffie Osborne·John Ryan·beaten 0.2 lengths
9/1·10.00
SP
3rd
Wreck It Ryley (IRE)
Tom Eaves·Alan Brown·beaten .5 lengths
20/1·21.00
SP

Race time

1m 12.54s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Juan Les Pins (GB))

“In the pack - pushed along and gained ground 2f out - kept on strongly inside the final furlong - drew alongside the front-runner last 110yds - edged ahead near the finish to win”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 7.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way52.1/100 rating

Juan Les Pins

9.60Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Juan Les Pins

Juan Les Pins heads our ratings on 83, three pounds ahead of Utmost Respect on 80, so he is narrowly the best of this 13-runner Class 5 sprint on the Newcastle all-weather. That edge is enough to make him our selection in a field with few standout credentials, and a competitive 6f standard test should suit a runner rated above his rivals. Utmost Respect is the chief danger, with Wreck It Ryley and Mae Amor both on 79 and well capable of getting involved if the pace falls their way. Juan Les Pins gets the nod.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Juan Les Pins

Mason Paetel(3) · Michael Appleby · 9yo

Top-rated of 13

score 52.1 · +0.8 clear of next best (51.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
16d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
53average
Michael Appleby: 6/28 winners last 14d (21%)
Ratings50% weight
50average
OR 75 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
33weak
Last 6: 3-2-9-0-6-3

MarketBest price 9.60 (Betfair Exchange) · 4th in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 1.02

Mid (6–9)

IV 0.88

High (10–13)

IV 1.09

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	2	Juan Les Pins J: Mason Paetel(3) · T: Michael Appleby · draw 11 9yo · G · b	329063	9-12	75	—	—	52.1	15/2·8.50 SP
2	11	Brazen Idol J: Saffie Osborne · T: John Ryan · draw 3 7yo · G · br	285004	9-00	63	—	—	32.4	9/1·10.00 SP
3	5	Wreck It Ryley J: Tom Eaves · T: Alan Brown · draw 10 6yo · G · grv	963707	9-10	73	—	—	47.9	20/1·21.00 SP
4	8	Secret Guest J: Oisin Orr · T: Bryan Smart · draw 9 6yo · G · gr	650048	9-06	69	—	—	42.0	11/2·6.50 SP
5	3	Kinnalargy J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 5 3yo · G · b	05740	9-11	75	—	—	43.3	3/1F·4.00 SP
6	1	Mae Amor J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 13 4yo · F · chv	643472	9-12	75	—	—	41.6	11/2·6.50 SP
7	4	Ormolulu J: Kevin Stott · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 7 6yo · M · b	075299	9-10	73	—	—	40.6	12/1·13.00 SP
8	13	Pit Boss J: Andrew Mullen · T: Liam Bailey · draw 2 4yo · G · gr	331390	8-09	58	—	—	42.0	33/1·34.00 SP
9	10	Havanagreattime J: Joanna Mason · T: Ruth Carr · draw 4 5yo · G · gr	09800	9-04	67	—	—	31.9	40/1·41.00 SP
10	9	Harb J: Jason Hart · T: Tristan Davidson · draw 6 7yo · G · b	521105	9-05	68	—	—	51.3	14/1·15.00 SP
11	6	Utmost Respect J: David Nolan · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 1 3yo · G · bvFT V	44000	9-09	73	—	—	42.1	11/2·6.50 SP
12	12	Taygar J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 12 5yo · M · b	426992	8-12	61	—	—	37.8	28/1·29.00 SP
—	—	Mondammej J: Cam Hardie · T: Antony Brittain · draw 8 9yo · G · b	06209	9-07	70	—	—	40.4	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 18:30 Newcastle (AW) on 12 October 2026?

Juan Les Pins (GB) won the 18:30 Newcastle (AW) at SP 8.50. Ridden by Mason Paetel. Trained by Michael Appleby.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:30 Newcastle (AW)?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Juan Les Pins, won the race (AI score 52.1).

What were the placings in the 18:30 Newcastle (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Juan Les Pins (GB) (8.50), 2. Brazen Idol (GB) (10.00), 3. Wreck It Ryley (IRE) (21.00).

What was the winning time for the 18:30 Newcastle (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 12.54s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org