16:30 Southwell (AW)

Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners · £3,245 · Thursday, 15 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (14 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Desiderata

No. 1 · score 50.4 · +8.0 clear of next best · best 17/2·9.50

Best value vs consensus

Nefyn Queen

66/1·67.00 Bet365 · +14% vs fair (consensus 58.51)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 25 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way50.4/100 rating

Desiderata

9.50Bet365

Place portion settles at 2.70 · 1/5 odds · 4 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Desiderata

Zoe Lewis(5) · Thomas Faulkner · 6yo

Top-rated of 14

score 50.4 · +8.0 clear of next best (42.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
18d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
63small sample (n=4)
Thomas Faulkner: 1/4 winners last 14d (25%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Form20% weight
50below average
Last 6: 6-1-3-1-5-7
Ratings50% weight
36below average
OR 54

MarketBest price 9.50 (Bet365) · 4th in the market of 14.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
3Maynora 5Yoko
Prominent(3)
4Joud 6Oxford Circus 8Here Comes Louie
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(5)
7Liberty Bird 9Pride Eye 10Bridgefoot Rambler 13Ragaire 14Nefyn Queen
Unknown(4)
1Desiderata 2Battle Standard 11Starshot 12Forever My Girl

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–5)

IV 0.96

Mid (6–10)

IV 1.04

High (11–14)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	DesiderataPick J: Zoe Lewis(5) · T: Thomas Faulkner · draw 13 · combo 6/26 (23%) 6yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	613157	9-09	54	—	—	50.4	10/1·11.42	17/2·9.50 Bet365 · -17% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36517/2·9.50 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00Smarkets9·9.00Matchbook8.8·8.80Betfair Exchange8.6·8.60 Betfred7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 7Bet6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00
4	Joud J: Cian Horgan(3) · T: Edward Bethell · draw 2 · combo 1/29 (3%) 3yo · F · bOnly ride	3452	9-07	55	—	—	42.4	4/1·4.99	3.95·3.95 Matchbook · -21% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Matchbook3.95·3.95Smarkets3.95·3.95Betfair Exchange3.7·3.70 Bet3655/2·3.50 BetTom5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 Midnite5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 SportingIndex5/2·3.50 Spreadex5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 William Hill5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Paddy Power5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 SmarketsSBK12/5·3.40 7Bet9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25
3	Maynora J: William Pyle · T: Craig Lidster · draw 4 · combo 2/11 (18%) 3yo · G · brpOnly ride	445254	9-07	55	—	—	41.5	10/1·11.42	9.2·9.20 Matchbook · -19% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Matchbook9.2·9.20Smarkets8.8·8.80Bet36515/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 Betfred7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 Betfair Exchange8·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 7Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 BetMGM6/1·7.00
10	Bridgefoot Rambler J: Jack Nicholls · T: Stephen Hanlon · draw 1 4yo · F · grbOnly pairing	609357	9-02	47	—	—	39.1	50/1·48.52	33/1·34.00 Bet365 · -30% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36533/1·34.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Unibet33/1·34.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00Matchbook30·30.00Bet Victor28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00Smarkets29·29.00Betfair Exchange23·23.00
5	Yoko J: Alexandra Egan(5) · T: David Loughnane · draw 9 3yo · F · bOnly ride	25946	9-07	55	—	—	37.6	20/1·21.41	20/1·21.00 Bet365 · -2% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36520/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00Smarkets14·14.00Matchbook14·14.00Betfair Exchange13.5·13.50Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00
11	Starshot J: Tom Kiely-Marshall · T: Lawrence Mullaney · draw 8 6yo · G · btOnly pairing	403488	9-00	44	—	—	36.6	40/1·41.39	33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports · -18% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Boyle Sports33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Paddy Power33/1·34.00Matchbook32·32.007Bet30/1·31.00 Bet36528/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange25·25.00Smarkets5.3·5.30
8	Here Comes Louie J: Rhys Elliott · T: Roger Fell · draw 6 3yo · G · bOnly runner	622730	9-03	51	—	—	36.3	12/1·13.56	12·12.00 Matchbook · -11% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Matchbook12·12.00Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50 Bet3659/1·10.00 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Coral17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Paddy Power17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50 BetTom8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 7Bet15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50Smarkets5.2·5.20
6	Oxford Circus J: Christian Howarth · T: James Owen · draw 11 · combo 2/24 (8%) 4yo · G · bpOnly pairing	060094	9-06	51	—	—	35.2	10/3·4.28	3.9·3.90 Smarkets · -9% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Smarkets3.9·3.90Betfair Exchange3.8·3.80Matchbook3.3·3.30Boyle Sports9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook9/4·3.25Paddy Power9/4·3.25 Bet3652/1·3.00 BetTom2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 Midnite2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00 William Hill2/1·3.00 Unibet2/1·3.00 7Bet19/10·2.90 Bet Victor15/8·2.88 BetMGM15/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.88 Betano15/8·2.88 Dragon Bet15/8·2.88 SmarketsSBK15/8·2.88
9	Pride Eye J: Ryan Kavanagh · T: Mark Rimell · draw 3 4yo · F · btOnly pairing	452455	9-02	47	—	—	33.8	11/1·12.13	10·10.00 Smarkets · -18% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Smarkets10·10.00Matchbook9.8·9.80Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 Bet36515/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Midnite15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 7Bet7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50
13	Ragaire J: Harry Vigors(3) · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 12 · combo 1/8 (13%) 3yo · G · gOnly ride	000908	8-11	40	—	—	30.6	50/1·58.51	40/1·41.00 Bet365 · -30% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36540/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00Matchbook36·36.007Bet35/1·36.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange28·28.00Smarkets3.15·3.15
14	Nefyn Queen J: Ethan Tindall(3) · T: Stephen Hanlon · draw 7 3yo · F · bpFT POnly ride	0600	8-11	34	—	—	30.6	50/1·58.51	66/1·67.00 Bet365 · +14% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36566/1·67.00 SmarketsSBK55/1·56.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00Matchbook18·18.00Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50Smarkets4.8·4.80
7	Liberty Bird J: Alfie Redman(5) · T: James Evans · draw 10 4yo · F · chpOnly rideOnly runner	09P797	9-03	48	—	—	27.8	33/1·32.82	22/1·23.00 Bet365 · -30% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36522/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Paddy Power22/1·23.00Matchbook22·22.007Bet20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00Smarkets4.6·4.60
2	Battle Standard J: Jack Callan · T: Jack Morland · draw 5 3yo · G · chOnly runner	049	9-07	55	—	—	26.4	14/1·14.27	12/1·13.00 Bet365 · -9% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Bet36512/1·13.00Matchbook13·13.00SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20Smarkets4.5·4.50
12	Forever My Girl J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: Katy Price · draw 14 8yo · M · bOnly runner	00000	9-00	32	—	—	13.2	100/1·115.60	100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports · -13% vs fair Compare 25 books ▾ Boyle Sports100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 BetTom80/1·81.00 BetWright80/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 Unibet80/1·81.00 Bet36580/1·81.00 Betfred80/1·81.00 Coral80/1·81.00 Ladbrokes80/1·81.00 Quinn Bet80/1·81.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00 Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00 SmarketsSBK55/1·56.00Smarkets40·40.00Matchbook34·34.00Betfair Exchange14·14.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 25 bookmakers per horse with the 43% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap Stakes?

The Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap Stakes is off at 16:30 on 15 October 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:30 Southwell (AW)?

1m, Class 6, Flat, 14 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:30 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:30 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Desiderata (score 50.4, best price 9.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:30 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Oxford Circus at a best price of 3.90. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Desiderata.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org