15:40 Curragh

Ireland

Hailey Equine Irish EBF Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Listed)

6f · Flat · Class 1 · Soft · 16 runners · €33,000 · Sunday, 4 October 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (17 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Dancing Saxon

No. 10 · score 66.2 · +0.5 clear of next best · best 4/1·4.80

Best value vs consensus

Greydreambeliever

26·26.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair (consensus 21.67)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way66.2/100 rating

Dancing Saxon

4.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Carla RidgeDiffers from our pick

Carla Ridge heads our ratings on 111, four pounds clear of Royal Bay Cen on 107 and five ahead of Pivotal Attack on 106, a worthwhile edge in a 17-runner Class 1 sprint. That advantage should count for plenty over six furlongs on soft ground, where a strong, well-rated sort can grind out the win while others tire. Royal Bay Cen and Pivotal Attack are the obvious dangers, with Fregada on 98 the next best of the rest, but none of them matches the quality of our top-rated runner. Carla Ridge is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Dancing Saxon

J M Sheridan · Joseph Patrick O'Brien · 3yo

Top-rated of 17

score 66.2 · +0.5 clear of next best (65.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
35d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
81very strong
Last 6: 1-1-2-1-3-2
Ratings50% weight
66strong
OR 99 — above field median
Trainer20% weight
43below average
Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 10/60 winners last 14d (17%)

MarketBest price 4.80 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
12Focaccia 15Space Bear
Prominent(4)
2Pivotal Attack 5Fregada 8Staysound Susie 17Thenandnow
Mid-division(2)
7Greydreambeliever 16Spinning Around
Hold-up / closers(7)
1Likedbymike 9Treasure Rose 10Dancing Saxon 11Do For Love 13Institute 14Luna Mia Gazelle d'Or
Unknown(2)
3Royal Bay Cen 4Carla Ridge

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Curragh 6f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.12).

Low (1–6)

IV 1.03

Mid (7–12)

IV 0.84

High (13–17)

IV 1.12

Today: Space Bear (draw 15) and Carla Ridge (draw 14) get the bias; Greydreambeliever (draw 10) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 182 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
10	Dancing SaxonPick J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 1 3yo · F · bD	112132	9-02	99	—	—	66.2	9/2·5.42	4.8·4.80 Matchbook · -11% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook4.8·4.80Betfair Exchange4.7·4.70Smarkets4.7·4.70SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00 Paddy Power3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 BetMGM11/4·3.75Virgin Bet11/4·3.75William Hill11/4·3.75 LiveScore Bet11/4·3.75 Bet36511/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75Hollywood Bets11/4·3.75Betano11/4·3.75
15	Space Bear J: Jason Watson · T: Michael Appleby · draw 15 3yo · F · bDOnly rideOnly runner	230211	9-02	85	—	—	65.7	12/1·12.73	10/1·11.00 Coral · -14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Matchbook9.6·9.60William Hill17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50Midnite17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50Smarkets9.4·9.40Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40 BetTom8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Paddy Power8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00
1	Likedbymike J: W. J. Lee · T: M J Byrne · draw 2 4yo · F · bOn last winning markDOnly runner	293011	9-06	94	—	—	62.9	18/1·18.96	21·21.00 Matchbook · +11% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook21·21.00Smarkets19·19.00SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00
7	Greydreambeliever J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 10 4yo · F · gr	294581	9-03	94	—	—	59.3	20/1·21.67	26·26.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook26·26.00Smarkets24·24.00Betfair Exchange23·23.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Midnite16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Bet36514/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00
3	Royal Bay Cen J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh · draw 11 3yo · F · ch	45144	9-05	100	—	—	59.1	17/2·9.48	9.2·9.20 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook9.2·9.20Betfair Exchange9.2·9.20Smarkets9·9.00SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Midnite6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 10 Bet6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50BetWright11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Betano5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00
12	Focaccia J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J A Stack · draw 6 3yo · F · bOnly runner	828630	9-02	88	—	—	55.8	80/1·90.73	95·95.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook95·95.00Midnite66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 Paddy Power66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00BetMGM66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.0010 Bet66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00William Hill66/1·67.00 BetWright60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00Smarkets60·60.00SmarketsSBK55/1·56.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00
13	Institute J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien · draw 5 3yo · F · b2lb below win mark	28641	9-02	77	—	—	54.8	40/1·39.27	42·42.00 Matchbook · +7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook42·42.00Ladbrokes40/1·41.00Smarkets36·36.00Coral33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange32·32.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00Midnite28/1·29.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00BetWright28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00
11	Do For Love J: Donagh O'Connor · T: K J Condon · draw 3 3yo · F · chbFT BOnly runner	51667	9-02	85	—	—	52.8	150/1·136.78	250·250.00 Matchbook · +83% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook250·250.00Betfair Exchange230·230.00 Midnite125/1·126.00 BetTom100/1·101.00 Bet365100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 BetWright100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 LiveScore Bet100/1·101.00Virgin Bet100/1·101.00Betfred100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 Unibet100/1·101.00 Star Sports100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports100/1·101.00 10 Bet100/1·101.00 BetMGM100/1·101.00Hollywood Bets100/1·101.00William Hill100/1·101.00Smarkets95·95.00SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 Bet Victor80/1·81.00 Betano80/1·81.00
16	Spinning Around J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · draw 12 3yo · F · btOnly rideOnly runner	418523	9-02	99	—	—	52.4	11/1·12.19	12·12.00 Matchbook Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook12·12.00Smarkets11.5·11.50Betfair Exchange11·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 Bet36517/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 BetTom8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Paddy Power8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00Star Sports8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00
4	Carla Ridge J: Chris Hayes · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty · draw 14 4yo · F · bOnly pairing	23016	9-03	109	—	—	52.1	9/2·5.42	4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes · -8% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Ladbrokes4/1·5.00Matchbook4.5·4.50SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Betfair Exchange4.5·4.50Smarkets4.5·4.50Midnite10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Coral3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00BetTom3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00William Hill3/1·4.00
8	Staysound Susie J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery · draw 7 5yo · M · b	531607	9-03	82	—	—	51.2	66/1·69.07	70·70.00 Matchbook Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook70·70.00BetMGM50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Midnite50/1·51.00Smarkets50·50.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange26·26.00
2	Pivotal Attack J: G. F. Carroll · T: Joseph G Murphy · draw 4 3yo · F · ch	384189	9-05	102	—	—	50.7	9/1·10.16	9·9.00 Matchbook · -11% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook9·9.00Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80Smarkets8.6·8.60Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 BetMGM7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00Virgin Bet13/2·7.50BetWright13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00Boyle Sports6/1·7.00
9	Treasure Rose J: N G McCullagh · T: J. P. Murtagh · draw 16 4yo · F · bpDOnly pairing	115885	9-03	81	—	—	48.3	80/1·90.73	120·120.00 Matchbook · +32% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook120·120.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Smarkets65·65.00BetWright60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 SmarketsSBK60/1·61.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Betfair Exchange32·32.00
—	Gazelle d'Or J: Robbie Colgan · T: M C Grassick · draw 17 4yo · F · bpOnly pairing	022400	9-03	88	—	—	47.3	66/1·69.07	66/1·67.00 Paddy Power · -3% vs fair Compare 23 books ▾ Paddy Power66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00BetWright50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00Smarkets38·38.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange21·21.00Matchbook1.03·1.03
5	Fregada J: R. P. Whelan · T: John James Feane · draw 9 4yo · F · bOnly runner	96643	9-03	90	—	—	44.3	16/1·16.25	18.5·18.50 Matchbook · +14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook18.5·18.50Betfair Exchange18·18.00Smarkets17.5·17.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 BetTom11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00
14	Luna Mia J: Wesley Joyce · T: Henry de Bromhead · draw 8 3yo · F · bOnly ride	18247	9-02	78	—	—	43.6	80/1·90.73	200·200.00 Matchbook · +120% vs fair Compare 26 books ▾ Matchbook200·200.00Smarkets90·90.00SmarketsSBK80/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 BetWright60/1·61.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Betfair Exchange23·23.00
17	Thenandnow J: Nathan Crosse · T: Mrs J. Harrington · draw 13 3yo · F · bpFT POnly pairing	503530	9-02	72	—	—	41.5	80/1·90.73	100·100.00 Matchbook · +10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook100·100.00Star Sports66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Bet36566/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Midnite66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 BetWright60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00Smarkets60·60.00SmarketsSBK55/1·56.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 Betfair Exchange29·29.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 23–28 bookmakers per horse with the 35% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Hailey Equine Irish EBF Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Listed)?

The Hailey Equine Irish EBF Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Listed) is off at 15:40 on 4 October 2026 at Curragh (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:40 Curragh?

6f, Class 1, Flat, 16 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:40 Curragh?

Going is reported as Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:40 Curragh?

The AI top-rated runner is Dancing Saxon (score 66.2, best price 4.80). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:40 Curragh?

The market favourite is Dancing Saxon at a best price of 4.80.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org